554
FXUS64 KHGX 220006
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
706 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 217 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Upper level ridging remains in place overhead, resulting in another
hot and humid day. A few light showers will continue to develop near
the coast this afternoon, before tapering off by early this evening.
A quiet night is expected with patchy low-lying fog possible.

Conditions in Southeast TX will continue to be dominated by the
ridge aloft and at the surface on Sunday. Expect another hot and
humid day with highs in the 90s. Heights will gradually weaken as
mid/upper level ridge axis moves to our east and a cold front slides
southeast across the Plains. By Sunday evening/night....strong newly
persistent onshore flow should begin to push deeper Gulf moisture
into the region. Increasing moisture combined with a broad surge of
theta-e advection will lead to increasing rain/storm chances from
the coast overnight.

JM

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 217 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

By Monday, the main ridge axis will have shifted eastward as an
upper level trough begins to dip down into the Central Plains. Going
into midweek is when things get a bit interesting as the 12Z
deterministic models have come into agreement on this evolving into
a cutoff upper level low over the Southern Plains. The GFS is
finally somewhat onboard with this solution...it keeps the upper low
closer to the Mississippi River Valley whereas the Euro and Canadian
keep the upper low generally over Texas. So, while there is at least
closer agreement...there is still some disagreement and thus we`re
back to our talk of uncertainty again. We`re at least confident in
the daily chances for showers/storms along the seabreeze throughout
the week since we won`t have subsidence aloft suppressing the
coverage of convection combined with increasing low-level moisture.

As we shift the conversation over to temperatures, let`s briefly
talk about our approaching cold front. This front is the result of
surface low pressure developing near the ARKLATEX and drifting
northeastward early next week. As it does so, the tail end of a weak
cold front pushes through Southeast Texas around midweek. I`m
keeping that rather vague as timing/progression of this front is
still in question. Some models push the front through faster than
others, and some are slow on the speed of the front. Either way, the
front will at least be close enough to us on Tuesday/Wednesday to
allow for moisture to build up along the frontal boundary through
convergence, so these will be our best chances to see rainfall north
of I-10. With that in mind, it`s definitely easy to see why there is
still quite the spread between the lower and upper quartiles (~6+F)
of the temperature distribution after midweek. With the upper level
low at least nearby, we should see a downward trend in temperatures
with highs more commonly in the upper 80s/low 90s towards the end of
the forecast period. I know that there is some interest on what
could potentially develop in the Gulf next week...so for more
details on that, see the Tropical section down below.

Batiste

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 703 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

VFR conditions will generally prevail overnight and into tomorrow,
though the possibility of patchy fog reducing visibility to sub-
VFR levels for a few hours remains a possibility yet again. Any
lingering fog will diminish after sunrise, with some scattered
clouds in the 2000-4000ft range possible through the day. SE winds
prevail into the afternoon with speeds generally below 10 knots.

Cady

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 217 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

The benign period of marine conditions continues as light to
occasionally moderate onshore winds and low seas will persist into
next week. Expect increasing chances for showers/storms beginning on
Sunday and continuing into next week. After midweek, winds and seas
are expected to gradually climb towards caution flag territory.
Mariners should monitor the National Hurricane Center (NHC) for
forecasts/updates as a broad area of low pressure is expected to
develop in the early to middle part of next week in the northwestern
Carribean Sea. This system could then evolve into a tropical
depression as it moves across the Gulf of Mexico through the end
of next week. It is still too early to determine it`s track,
intensity, or any specific impacts from it - but mariners should
continue to monitor forecast updates from the NHC through next
week.

Batiste

&&

.TROPICAL...
Issued at 217 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) continues to monitor the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and southern Gulf of Mexico as a broad
area of low pressure could develop by the early to middle part of
next week. Gradual development of this system is possible and
could result in the development of a tropical depression as it
moves slowly northward across the Gulf of Mexico through the end
of next week. The NHC currently has a 60% (medium) probability of
formation over the next 7 days. This system has not yet developed,
so it is still far too early to determine it`s track, intensity,
or any specific impacts from it. Don`t put too much stock into any
single deterministic model run. Please continue to monitor the
latest forecasts and updates from the NHC at www.hurricanes.gov.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  73  94  73  93 /  10  10   0  10
Houston (IAH)  75  93  75  93 /  10  10   0  20
Galveston (GLS)  80  87  80  87 /   0  20  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....Batiste
AVIATION...Cady
MARINE...Batiste