250
FXUS64 KHGX 011120
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
620 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

The first day of June will be a bit quieter than the last day of
May, but that doesn`t mean we are out of the woods for storm
potential today. A combination of daytime heating, abundant
moisture, and a passing weak shortwave aloft will lead to pop-up
showers and storms through the day today. Activity will first
start along the coast between the mid and late morning, expanding
northwards through the afternoon, then dissipating this evening.
While most storms will be sub-severe today, there is a chance for
an isolated severe thunderstorm or two capable of producing strong
wind gusts and potentially some hail. SPC has placed all of SE
Texas in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for Severe Storms today,
and WPC has also placed most of SE Texas in a Marginal (level 1 of
4) for Excessive Rainfall. The storms that pop up will be capable
of bringing a quick downpour of 1-3", which normally wouldn`t be
an issue but soils are very well saturated after yesterday`s heavy
rainfall. A lull in the activity is expected overnight tonight,
but late morning and afternoon thunderstorms will again bloom over
SE Texas. Another upper level shortwave will be moving in from
the west, so there is potential for a line of storms to move into
SE Texas sometime tomorrow afternoon/evening - however, exactly
how strong, when, and where is largely uncertain right now.

Temperatures over the weekend will be rather seasonal during the
daytime hours with high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s.
The onshore flow and high dew points will lead to overnight low
temperatures to be unseasonably warm, in the mid to upper 70s
inland and low 80s along the coast.

Fowler

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

A drier weather pattern seems to be setting up across Southeast
Texas for much of the upcoming work week. Early next week,
although the environment seems to be healthy enough for some
shower and thunderstorms development, in particular with onshore
flow continuing to supply warm moist air from the Gulf, good
instability remains in place, and weak disturbance and vort maxes
moving over the region, models seem to favor the cap limiting our
rain chances for much of Southeast Texas. The best opportunity
for showers and storms are currently located over the Brazos
Valley and Piney Woods region for Monday.

The cap is then expected to strengthen Tuesday. Dry conditions
will continue into Wednesday as mid level ridge builds a little
more and with 500 mb heights slightly increasing, we will likely
see temperatures go from the low 90s on Monday and Tuesday to the
low to mid 90s on Wednesday. Some isolated spots may even see lows
in the mid to upper 90s both Wednesday and Thursday. With the
onshore flow continuing low level moisture transport, dewpoints
will remain generally in the mid to upper 70s. This combined with
rising temperatures, we could see heat indices between 103 to 110
deg F and heat advisories may be required. Please remember to
practice heat safety and make the appropriate preparations if you
plan to work or spend time outdoors. Drink plenty of fluids, stay
in an air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on
relatives and neighbors. Never leave children and pets in
unattended vehicles. For those walking or taking your pets
outdoors, remember, if it is too hot for your palm, then it is too
hot for their paws and bring water for them as well.

By the end of the work week, there is still some model
inconsistency but there might be a weak cold front to our north or
northeast and it could slid close to or possibly over Southeast
Texas. If the frontal boundary stays out of our location, we may
continue be remain on the dry side of things as high pressure
dominates the weather pattern along with continued heat impacts.
Some rain chances could occur if the boundary makes it into
Southeast Texas and would also help bring down the highs closer
into the low 90s. Heat indices would also decrease slightly,
roughly in the low 100s. Regardless, we are transitioning into a
summer pattern and conditions will naturally be warming up.
Sadness.

Cotto (24)

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 610 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through this evening with south-
southeasterly winds developing around 6-11kt. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop during the late morning
along the coast, the spread inland through the afternoon bringing
temporary periods of heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Coverage
decreases after sunset with MVFR conditions developing after
midnight with CIGs around 1500-2500ft expected. Patchy fog will
also be possible at times. These conditions improve through
Sunday morning, but additions storms are possible this Sunday
afternoon.

Fowler

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 317 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Light to moderate onshore flow and seas of 3 to 6 feet is expected
during the next few days. Caution flags may be needed at times. Periods
of showers and storms are expected this weekend. Some storms
could be strong to severe, capable of producing strong gusty winds
and higher seas.

There is a chance for strong rip currents along the Gulf facing
beaches during the next couple of days. Beachgoers should exercise
caution in the waters and follow beach flags and lifeguard
guidance.

Cotto (24)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  89  75  90  77 /  50  30  30  10
Houston (IAH)  89  77  90  78 /  60  20  30   0
Galveston (GLS)  87  81  87  81 /  40  20  20   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fowler
LONG TERM....Cotto
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Cotto