Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
361 FGUS74 KHGX 151916 ESFHGX 160716- PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON, TX 216 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 ...Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) long range probabilistic outlook for the Lavaca-Navidad River Basin in Southeast Texas... The Houston/Galveston National Weather Service Office has implemented Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) for the Lavaca-Navidad River Basin in Southeast Texas. AHPS enables the National Weather Service to provide long-range probabilistic outlooks. This service is also available on the internet. In the table below, the 90 through 10 percent columns indicate the chance the river could rise above the listed stage levels in the next 90 days. Example: The Navidad River at Strane Park has a flood stage of 24 feet. There is a 50 percent chance the Strane Park forecast point will rise above 12.5 feet during the next 90 days. Chance of exceeding stages at specific locations Valid 08/14/2024 - 11/12/2024 Location fs(ft) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Tres Palacios River Midfield 24.0 7.3 10.2 15.5 18.3 19.3 22.0 24.3 28.5 30.0 Sandy Creek Cordele 18.0 6.4 7.3 9.0 9.5 10.5 12.1 12.9 17.2 20.6 East Mustang Creek Louise 19.0 7.2 8.8 9.4 10.1 10.8 11.2 13.6 21.1 22.1 West Mustang Creek Ganado 20.0 8.7 9.8 11.8 12.3 13.1 13.8 15.1 17.2 21.3 Navidad River Sublime 24.0 6.5 6.9 7.4 8.4 9.7 11.1 12.3 17.4 27.7 Speaks 24.0 4.6 5.6 6.9 7.9 9.4 12.0 15.6 21.4 26.0 Morales 29.0 8.5 10.8 11.8 12.6 13.7 17.1 20.0 28.7 31.5 Strane Park 24.0 7.0 9.1 10.0 11.1 12.5 14.7 19.1 26.0 28.6 Lavaca River Hallettesville 27.0 4.8 5.5 7.3 7.8 8.2 9.0 11.2 13.7 16.8 Edna 21.0 7.5 8.7 9.6 10.9 11.9 15.5 18.4 23.4 26.6 This long-range probabilistic outlook contains numbers that are calculated using multiple scenarios from 50 years of historical climatological and stream flow data. These numbers also take into account current conditions of the river and soil moisture. By providing the complete range of probabilistic numbers, the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. Additional supportive data and explanation are available on the internet at: https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/long_range.php?wfo=hgx (internet address is all lower case). Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued around the third Thursday of every month. $$