Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
563 FXUS66 KHNX 252048 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 148 PM PDT Tue Jun 25 2024 && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Above average temperatures will continue this week, with 100 degree heat persistent for many locations through Wednesday. 2. There is a 10 to 30 percent probability for thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon along the Sierra Nevada crest from Yosemite National Park to the border of Tulare and Kern Counties. 3. Winds pick up on Wednesday evening through Friday morning with a 80 to near 100 percent chance of wind gusts of 45 mph or higher at the Mojave Desert Slopes. A wind advisory is in effect from Wednesday evening through Friday morning. && .DISCUSSION... The ridge axis remains centered over western New Mexico this afternoon. The moisture from the former Tropical system Alberto continues to linger over the region and should exit on Wednesday as an upper trough digs into the Pacific Northwest pushing the ridge down a little. The general pattern aloft will continue from west to northwest keeping the temperatures down to near normal for the latter part of the week into the weekend. A ridge over the eastern Pacific and the ridge over the southeastern US will begin to resurges starting Monday. This will bring the heat back to Central California as we head into the upcoming holiday week. This afternoon will be another above 100 degree day, a slight bit cooler than yesterday, for the San Joaquin Valley. The probability of exceeding (PoE) 100 degrees ranges from 61 percent for Merced to 96 percent at Bakersfield for this afternoon. The moisture aloft will keep a few mid to high clouds around the valley. The risk for valley thunderstorms is very low with convective temperatures around 117 degrees and convective inhibition values greatly exceed convective available potential energy. The foothills and Sierra are the threat zones for dry thunderstorms again this afternoon and evening. Any thunderstorms that fire up over the foothills and or Sierra will move off to the east towards Nevada. The probability of thunderstorms in the foothills 10 to 20 percent, and above 5000 feet increases to 20 to 35 percent with the higher probability along the crests. Wednesday shifts the impact focus from temperatures and thunderstorms over to wind for the region. The probability of thunder is confined to the highest crests of the Sierra and is less than 10 percent. The PoE of 100 degrees in the San Joaquin Valley for Merced and Madera is less than 16 percent. The remainder of the valley is 45 to 60 percent. The focus on impacts is the Mojave Slopes as Wednesday evening the probability of exceeding 45 mph increases on the short range ensembles to 80 to near 100 percent. Raised the wind advisory flag for Wednesday evening for the Slopes. Thursday the main impact will continue to be Mojave Slope winds as during the day expect a little lull sub advisory levels and then Thursday evening a 50 to 70 percent probability of exceeding 45 mph. The PoE of 100 degrees falls below 11 percent for the San Joaquin Valley. The risk of thunderstorms for the high Sierra falls to near zero. Friday through Sunday the Mojave Slope wind takes a break. The PoE of 100 degrees continues sub 30 percent for the weekend ahead. The threat of thunder continues near zero for the region. Monday into next week the PoE of 100 degrees increases daily on Monday 30 to 40 percent, Tuesday 60 to 80 percent, and peering into next Wednesday and Thursday above 80 percent. A hot fourth of July week is anticipated for the region. && .AVIATION... VFR. The impacts will be ISOL TS over the foothills and Sierra Crests. The threat lasts through 03Z WED. Otherwise, only VFR clouds are expected through the period. && .FIRE WEATHER... The cured fine fuels continue to pose a threat for ignition for the foreseeable future. This afternoon and evening poses a threat for dry thunderstorms again in the Sierra. The risk in the Valley is near zero this afternoon and evening. The temperatures will slowly cut back to near normal by the weekend. The main wind threat will be on the Mojave Slopes. Otherwise, the valley, foothills, and Sierra remain mainly diurnal terrain driven winds. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... ISSUED: 06/24/2024 14:33 EXPIRES: 06/25/2024 23:59 None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory from 8 PM Wednesday to 8 AM PDT Friday for CAZ338. && $$ public/aviation/fire weather...Proton IDSS....EW weather.gov/hanford