644
FXUS66 KHNX 210822
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
122 AM PDT Sat Sep 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

1. A warming trend will continue this weekend into early next
week with a 20 to 50 percent probability of temperatures
reaching the triple digits in the San Joaquin Valley on
Tuesday. Dry conditions will prevail during this time.

2. With the warming trend over the weekend and early nest week,
humidity values will drop which will lead to elevated grass
fire concerns, especially in eastern Kern County.

3. A cooling trend will take place between next Wednesday and
Friday, but temperatures will remain above normal and dry
conditions will continue.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The upper low that brought scattered showers and
thunderstorms to our area over the previous two days is now
centered in southeastern San Bernadino County and moving slowly
eastward and away from our area. Meanwhile, skies have cleared
our across our area behind the departed low as a dry high
pressure ridge centered near 135W builds inland into CA. The
ridge is progged to bring about a warming trend across our area
today through Tuesday. NBM guidance indicating the PoE for 90
DEG F in the San Joaquin Valley for today is between 70 and 90
percent and 95 percent or higher on Sunday. By Tuesday, as the
ridge shifts inland into the Great Basin, the PoE for 100 DEG F
in the San Joaquin Valley is 20 to 50 percent.

Ensemble means are showing the ridge will flatten Wednesday
through Friday as a trough pushes into the PAC NW on Wednesday
followed by a zonal flow pattern over the western CONUS on
Thursday and Friday. This will result in a slight cooling trend
taking place across our area during this period although
temperatures are expected to remain above normal and RH progs
are showing no significant moisture impacting our area over the
next seven days.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions will prevail across the central CA
interior over the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

public/aviation...DAS
idss...JPK

weather.gov/hanford