467
FXUS66 KHNX 230812
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
112 AM PDT Mon Sep 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

1. A warming trend will continue with a 40 to 70 percent
probability of temperatures reaching the triple digits in the
San Joaquin Valley on Tuesday.

2. A cooling trend will take place on Wednesday and Thursday,
but temperatures will remain above normal for the rest of the
week and next weekend.

3. A dry week for the region is expected for all of the
Interior of Central California. Relative Humidities are expected
to fall into the single digits during the afternoon hours for
Eastern Kern County. The rest of the areas`s Relative Humidity
values will fall into the teens and 20s. Overnight recoveries
will be poor for the desert and higher elevations while moderate
for the valley bottom.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A large dry upper ridge centered near 135W will
build inland into the PAC NW and Norcal today interacting with
a weak upper low off the Socal coast producing an offshore flow
pattern across central CA today. The strengthening ridge to our
north will result in a continuation of the ongoing warming trend
across our area. NBM indicating the PoE of 95 DEG F in the San
Joaquin Valley is 80 to 95 percent today. The ridge will build
inland into the Great Basin on Tuesday with the upper flow
turning more southerly with heights and thicknesses continuing
to rise across our area. The PoE of 95 DEG F in the San Joaquin
Valley rises to near 100 percent while the PoE of 100 DEG F
rises to 40 to 70 percent on Tuesday.

A series of shortwave troughs will then push through the PAC NW
Wednesday through next weekend, with with the upper flow
pattern blocked by an upper low over the deep south and a
potentially strong tropcial system in the eastern Gulf of Mexico
later this week. As a result, these shortwave systems will not
be able to dig too far southward over the western CONUS.
Therefore dry weather will continue across our area for the
remainder of the week. While a noticable cooling trend will take
place across our area on Wednesday and Thursday, the PoE of 95
DEG F will lower to 10 percent or less across most of the San
Joaquin Valley by Thursday.

Temperatures are expected to rebound upward slightly on Friday
and Saturday before a stronger shortwave trough pushes eastward
across the PAC NW next Sunday which will result in another
cooling trend for our area.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions will prevail across the central CA
interior over the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

public/aviation...DAS
idss...MM

weather.gov/hanford