Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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530
FXUS66 KHNX 151041
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
341 AM PDT Sat Jun 15 2024


&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. A cooling trend will bring temperatures closer to seasonal
averages for the weekend. Monday temperatures will be around 3
to 6 degrees below normal.
2. Snowmelt from the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada,
will continue to result in dangerously cold and fast flows along
rivers and waterways.
3. Strong wind gusts will develop along the Mojave Desert Slopes
each late afternoon through overnight through Monday. Afternoon
and evening breezes will develop across the San Joaquin Valley
with locally gusty conditions near the passes of the West Side
Mountains through Monday.
4. The gusty winds coupled with low relative humidity will bring
elevated fire weather concerns to the Kern County mountains and
desert and the San Joaquin Valley through Monday with a peak
over the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
After a few triple digit days this week, a cooldown is in order
for this weekend and into early next week. Two low pressure
systems moving successively into the Pacific Northwest will
lower heights and allow temperatures to drop down to near
normal. By Monday, temperatures in the San Joaquin Valley will
be at a pleasant mid to high 80s, 3-6 degrees below normal for
this time of year, with only a 30 to 50 percent chance of high
temperatures reaching 90 degrees. Beginning on Tuesday,
temperatures will warm back up.

These two low pressure systems will bring dry, cool air into the
area, tightening the pressure gradient and resulting in gusty,
dry conditions over the weekend. A High Wind Warning has been
issued for the Mojave Desert Slopes and is valid through Monday
night. The NBM shows very high probabilities - 90 to 100 percent
- of wind gusts near 50 mph for the afternoon and evenings
through Monday. In the West Side Hills, for tomorrow and Monday
evening, there is an 80 to 90 percent chance of wind gusts near
40 mph.

As the low pressure systems track eastward across the United
States and out of the area, temperatures will begin gradually
rising on Tuesday. In the wake of these low pressure systems, a
strong ridge will begin to form by the end of the week,
increasing temperatures considerably for next weekend. On
Friday, there is a 40 to 60 percent chance of triple digits
returning to the San Joaquin Valley. On Saturday, and through at
least Monday night, those probabilities rise to 80 to 90
percent. Stay tuned as we get closer to next weekend.

&&


.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail across the Central CA interior for
the next 24 hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Very low minimum relative humidity values throughout the San
Joaquin Valley and the Kern County Desert combined with the
strong winds from the low pressure system will result in an
enhanced fire risk through the weekend, with the peak occurring
on Monday. Relative humidity will drop to the teens in the
valley and into single digits in the Kern County Desert. The
Storm Prediction Center has indicated that on Monday, June 17,
there is a 40 to 69 percent chance of fire weather in the
western parts of Fresno, Madera, and Mariposa County, as well as
nearly all of Merced County.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ISSUED:  06/14/2024 12:53
EXPIRES: 06/15/2024 23:59
None.



&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 9 AM PDT this morning for CAZ338.
High Wind Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT Tuesday
for CAZ338.
&&

$$

public/aviation/fire weather...AS
PIO/IDSS.......................VJP

weather.gov/hanford