Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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775
FXUS66 KHNX 260827
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
127 AM PDT Wed Jun 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

1. Above average temperatures will continue today, with 100
degree heat persistent at many locations. Temperatures will
cool slightly on Thursday, but remain above normal.

2. There is a 5 to 20 percent probability for thunderstorms
this afternoon along the Sierra Nevada crest.

3. Winds pick up on this evening through Friday morning with a
80 to near 100 percent chance of wind gusts of 45 mph or higher
along the Mojave Desert Slopes. A Wind Advisory is in effect
from this evening through Friday morning.

4. Maximum temperatures are expected to rise back up to well
into the triple digits over the lower elevations by next
Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Upper ridge centered over the Desert Southwest
remains the main weather influencer for our area and will
provide our area with another day of widespread triple digit
heat across the San Joaquin Valley and Kern County Desert areas
although a cooling trend will take place today as a fairly
significant trough approaches the PAC NW coast and lowers
heights and thicknesses over our area and produces a more
pronounced onshore flow. Instability and CAPE remain sufficient
enough near the Sierra Nevada Crest today for isolated
thunderstorms this afternoon with the NBM indicating a 5 to 20
percent probability of thunderstorms along the crest this
afternoon. The probability of thunderstorms drops to near zero
by Thursday as any mid/upper level moisture will be pushed well
to the east of our area.

SREF indicating the trough pushing inland across the PAC NW
tonight and Thursday resulting in a break from the triple digit
heat except over the lower Kern County Deserts. Temperatures
will remain slightly above normal however. The main impact from
the trough passage will be a period of increased winds along
the Mojave Desert Slopes between this evening and Friday morning
as onshore p-grads strengthen. NBM is indicating a PoE of winds
exceeding 45 mph above 80 percent during this time frame and a
Wind Advisory has been posted from 800 pm PDT this evening until
800 am PDT Friday morning for the Mojave Desert Slopes.

As the trough moves east into the Intermountain West region,
the southwestern CONUS ridge will temporarily rebuild back into
central CA which will result in temperatures rebounding back
upward and maximums will approach the century mark in the San
Joaquin Valley on Saturday.

Medium range ensemble means are showing another trough pushing
through the PAC NW on Sunday. This will result in a brief
cooling trend for our area before temperatures rebound upward
next week as ensemble means are showing a strong ridge building
over the Great Basin by Tuesday. Latest NBM guidance is showing
a PoE of 100 DEG F in the San Joaquin Valley for Tuesday of 60
to 80 percent and a PoE of 105 DEG F in the San Joaquin Valley
for Tuesday of 15 to 35 percent

&&

.AVIATION...Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the
Sierra Nevada crest between 20Z and 24Z today. Wind gusts above
35 KT possible along the Mojave Desert Slopes after 03Z Thu.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail across the central CA
interior for the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM PDT Friday for
CAZ338.

&&

$$

public/aviation...DAS
idss...JPK

weather.gov/hanford