Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
775 FXUS66 KHNX 260827 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 127 AM PDT Wed Jun 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Above average temperatures will continue today, with 100 degree heat persistent at many locations. Temperatures will cool slightly on Thursday, but remain above normal. 2. There is a 5 to 20 percent probability for thunderstorms this afternoon along the Sierra Nevada crest. 3. Winds pick up on this evening through Friday morning with a 80 to near 100 percent chance of wind gusts of 45 mph or higher along the Mojave Desert Slopes. A Wind Advisory is in effect from this evening through Friday morning. 4. Maximum temperatures are expected to rise back up to well into the triple digits over the lower elevations by next Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION...Upper ridge centered over the Desert Southwest remains the main weather influencer for our area and will provide our area with another day of widespread triple digit heat across the San Joaquin Valley and Kern County Desert areas although a cooling trend will take place today as a fairly significant trough approaches the PAC NW coast and lowers heights and thicknesses over our area and produces a more pronounced onshore flow. Instability and CAPE remain sufficient enough near the Sierra Nevada Crest today for isolated thunderstorms this afternoon with the NBM indicating a 5 to 20 percent probability of thunderstorms along the crest this afternoon. The probability of thunderstorms drops to near zero by Thursday as any mid/upper level moisture will be pushed well to the east of our area. SREF indicating the trough pushing inland across the PAC NW tonight and Thursday resulting in a break from the triple digit heat except over the lower Kern County Deserts. Temperatures will remain slightly above normal however. The main impact from the trough passage will be a period of increased winds along the Mojave Desert Slopes between this evening and Friday morning as onshore p-grads strengthen. NBM is indicating a PoE of winds exceeding 45 mph above 80 percent during this time frame and a Wind Advisory has been posted from 800 pm PDT this evening until 800 am PDT Friday morning for the Mojave Desert Slopes. As the trough moves east into the Intermountain West region, the southwestern CONUS ridge will temporarily rebuild back into central CA which will result in temperatures rebounding back upward and maximums will approach the century mark in the San Joaquin Valley on Saturday. Medium range ensemble means are showing another trough pushing through the PAC NW on Sunday. This will result in a brief cooling trend for our area before temperatures rebound upward next week as ensemble means are showing a strong ridge building over the Great Basin by Tuesday. Latest NBM guidance is showing a PoE of 100 DEG F in the San Joaquin Valley for Tuesday of 60 to 80 percent and a PoE of 105 DEG F in the San Joaquin Valley for Tuesday of 15 to 35 percent && .AVIATION...Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the Sierra Nevada crest between 20Z and 24Z today. Wind gusts above 35 KT possible along the Mojave Desert Slopes after 03Z Thu. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail across the central CA interior for the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES...None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM PDT Friday for CAZ338. && $$ public/aviation...DAS idss...JPK weather.gov/hanford