Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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500 FXUS64 KHUN 021701 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1201 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Rest of Today) Issued at 949 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Early morning rain showers have shifted off to the ESE and dense low stratus have begun to break up somewhat as drier air has helped to erode this cloud cover. This partial clearing, along with the June sunshine, should help make for a much warmer day than yesterday as temperatures recover and climb into the low to mid 80s by the afternoon. Some low (20-30%) chances for showers and storms will remain in the forecast as this activity could redevelop along remnant outflow boundaries during this afternoon. However, coverage will be extremely limited as most locations will remain dry. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 259 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 The main focus tonight will be on fog, as clearing skies and light winds combined with wet near sfc soils will be favorable for at least patchy dense fog. Will have to monitor conditions closely later this evening and overnight as a Dense Fog Advisory may be needed. Overnight lows will fall into the upper 60s before we begin on a warming trend as upper ridging moves into the area. High pressure will remain dominant over the area on Monday, keeping the forecast dry with afternoon highs in the upper 80s. Southwest H85 flow will help advect a moist and warm sectored airmass into the area, Monday night and a series of upper disturbances will bring rain and thunder chances back into the forecast Tuesday afternoon. Will have to keep our eyes out for localized flooding during this timeframe as well, as PWATs climb back near 1.8" and will make for efficient rainfall producers. Some questions still remain on how much synoptic lift will be in place to support more than scattered coverage, so have stuck with blended guidance and a 30-50% PoP Tuesday afternoon and evening. Low rain/thunder chances will linger overnight Tuesday, with low temperatures near 70 degrees. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 259 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Heading into mid week, a deepening upper level low riding along the U.S. and Canadian border just NW of the Great Lakes will run into a blocking pattern. The associated sfc low will have a cold front that extends down the MS Valley. A shortwave will swing through before the cold front does, providing medium chances (40-60%) Wednesday morning, and coverage increases to high chances (60-70%) in the afternoon ahead of the front. Showers and storms will linger into Thursday, lesser in coverage though, until the front itself passes through. Forecast soundings show pockets of instability but weak shear with PWAT forecasts up to 1.8-1.9" (75th percentile or higher). At this time, hazards are heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Will note that WPC has the TN Valley in a Marginal ERO again on Wednesday, so will watch for flooding potential. Behind the front, cooler and drier air will filter in, decreasing cloud cover and dewpoints. Temps will only be a tad cooler, with highs in the low/mid 80s and lows in the lower 60s at night both Friday and Saturday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1201 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Have added a TEMPO between 18-22z at both terminals for MVFR/IFR conditions from a TSRA that may impact either site through the late afternoon. By the early evening, convection will wane and a return to VFR conditions will prevail. The one exception may be late tonight into early Monday morning when some patchy fog may cause reductions at both sites briefly. Did not have enough confidence to mention at this time, but future forecasts may need to add a mention in should confidence increase. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...AMP SHORT TERM....25 LONG TERM....JMS AVIATION...AMP.24