177
FXUS64 KHUN 051139
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
639 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Just a few light rain showers are left on radar as of this
writing, as thunderstorms seen earlier in the night have either
dissipated or moved off well to our northeast. Will remain in a
somewhat active pattern today, as a series of mid to upper level
shortwaves have resulted in several MCSs, with one progged to move
across the ArkLaTex region this morning. The exact track and
evolution of this convective complex remains a bit uncertain, and
will have an impact on the coverage of showers and thunderstorms
over the Tennessee Valley today. Have seen hi-res guidance
struggle recently with how these systems evolve, which isn`t
uncommon. This does result in a lower confidence forecast for
timing and just how much activity we will see during the day
today. Have opted to lower PoPs slightly below what the NBM
suggests, capping at 80% over NW AL and between 50-70% along and
east of I-65. Consensus shows isolated to scattered showers and
storms across the area during the morning and early afternoon
hours, with the highest chances later this afternoon into the
evening hours. Afternoon highs will reach the mid to upper 80s
with some breaks in the cloud cover possible this afternoon. With
a limited thermodynamic environment and weak shear, expect storms
to remain below severe limits, but could produce gusty winds and
heavy rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Will maintain 60-80% chances for rain and storms this evening, but
they will come to an end from west to east during the morning as
a cold front pushes drier air into the area. Overnight lows will
be in the mid to upper 60s with a low chance for patchy fog if
clouds clear the area quicker than currently forecast. Dry and
slightly cooler temperatures will follow for the remainder of the
short term period as high pressure becomes dominant and the
beginning of an extended period of northwest flow aloft begins.
Afternoon highs will drop from the mid to upper 80s on Thursday to
upper 70s/lower 80s Friday, with lows falling down into the upper
50s in the higher terrain on Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Looks like we will be stuck in this northwesterly flow pattern
through the extended forecast. An upper low straddling Ontario and
Quebec will be anchored there and a few shortwaves will round the
trough providing us chances of rain through Monday. The associated
sfc low will have a cold front extending through the OH Valley and
back into the Lower MS Valley that will head into the TN Valley and
Southeast this weekend. Ahead of these features, cloud cover will
increase on Saturday and low chances (20-30%) of showers and
thunderstorms will return. Coverage will increase to ~40% on Sunday
as the front draws near. During this time, a lobe of energy will
phase with the upper level trough, shifting it eastward. The GFS is
the most progressive with this and wants to bring in ridging by
Monday. Will wait for better model consensus and instead stick with
the NBM on keeping low chance of POPs in through Monday. Cooler and
drier air will filter in behind the front, providing drier conditions
and more sunshine on Tuesday. Daytime highs through the extended
will be near or slightly below seasonable values, staying in the
upper 70s to lower 80s. Lows on the other hand will remain warm
through the weekend and become more seasonable behind the front
returning to the lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

VFR to MVFR cigs are prevailing across the region currently, with
MVFR conditions expected through much of the TAF period. Several
rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected today, though
questions on exact timing and coverage remain. Have handled this
by PROB30 groups during time periods where SHRA/TSRA is most
likely, but amendments will likely be needed throughout the day.
IFR conditions are possible during any heavier showers/storms.
This activity should start to clear the area by the end of the TAF
period.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....JMS
AVIATION...25