348
FXUS64 KHUN 230637
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
137 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 137 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

With a weak area of high pressure remaining layered across parts
of the eastern half of the region, quiet/seasonably mild wx
conditions prevail into the early morning hrs this Mon. Some light
fog is again possible during the early morning period, but any fog
should quickly diminish/lift with the onset of the daytime hrs.
Low chances of showers/tstms are then possible later today, mainly
north of the TN River, as a weak upper disturbance traverses NE
into mid TN. Afternoon highs look to climb predom into the lower
90s/near 90F, with the region remaining under the influence of an
upper ridge axis over the western/central Gulf Coast areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 137 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Any lingering showers/tstms should then quickly taper off early
this evening over southern mid TN, as the upper ridge to the south
allows for one more relatively quiet/seasonably mild night. Lows
into early Tue look to again fall mainly into the mid 60s/near 70F
for most spots. The overall wx pattern will then begin to change
starting Tue, as the ridge axis weakens and an upper low/trough
pattern drops into the Midwest/Mid South states. A developing
low-level SW flow will allow PWs to climb into the 1.6-1.7" range
during the day Tue. In addition, 0-6km Bulk Shear values will
climb into the 30-40kt range, as SBCAPE values increase to around
1000-1500 J/kg. All of this should result in low-medium chances of
showers/tstms (30-60%), with the higher prob again north of the TN
River. The increase in deep layer shear may also allow for a few
strong/marginally severe tstms later in the day Tue. Given the
increase in clouds/rainfall, highs on Tue look to climb more into
the upper 80s/near 90F.

Medium to perhaps high chances of showers/tstms (50-70%) will then
continue Tue night thru the middle of the week, as the upper low
drops into the ArkLaMiss region and a weak cold front out of the
NW settles into the area. The increase in cloud cover/rainfall may
limit much in the way of additional airmass destabilization, but
Bulk Shear values around 40-50kt may still allow for a few strong
tstms into the day Wed. The front is expected to stall invof the
area past mid week, with medium/high chances for showers/tstms
continuing thru the day Thu. Total rainfall amounts from Tue thru
Thu could range between 2-3 inches. With the arrival of the weak
front plus the clouds/rainfall, highs Wed/Thu may struggle to
surpass the 80F mark, while lows thru Wed night trend predom in
the mid/upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Sunday)
Issued at 137 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

The long term part of the forecast will be heavily dependent on a
potential tropical system out of the western Caribbean that will
lift northward potentially making landfall along the eastern Gulf
Coast in the Thu night/early Fri time frame. Where this system
then tracks will determine how much additional rainfall the mid TN
Valley may experience into the first half of the weekend period.
If this system tracks more to the NNE versus the NE, the area
could see some additional rainfall along with some gusty winds
Fri/Fri night. However, a more eastern track may limit the
rainfall/winds and provide more of a dry forecast this weekend.
Regardless, highs look to remain in the upper 70s/near 80F this
weekend, with lows more in the lower/mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

With a weak area of high pressure remaining layered across parts
of the region, VFR conds are generally expected thru the period.
The exception may be some -br/MVFR vis early Mon morning. Iso
shra/tsra are also possible later in the day Mon, but the prob is
not high enough to include in the TAFs attm.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM....09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...09