Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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264 FXUS64 KHUN 211450 AAA AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Huntsville AL 950 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 ...New NEAR TERM... .NEAR TERM... (Rest of Today) Issued at 950 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 A few radar returns can be seen to our northwest, but these showers have been weakening as they progress southeastward. Little to no lightning has been observed with these thus far as well. Anticipating this activity to continue to decrease over the next couple of hours as they continue southeast, but did introduce low chances (5-15%) of showers over far northwest Alabama and the northwestern portion of southern middle Tennessee during this time. No other significant changes to the forecast were needed. Still anticipating it to be warm today, with highs reaching the lower 90s for most of the local area. Make sure to stay hydrated and take breaks in the shade if you have outdoor plans! && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday) Issued at 152 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Little change in the overall pattern is expected into the second half of the weekend period, as high pressure over the southern Atlantic region remains fairly stagnant, while the upper ridge pattern translates more into the SE states. Lows early Sun look to fall into the mid 60s/near 70F, before temps again rebound into the lower 90s/near 90F later in the day. The upper ridge axis will continue to drift eastward into the first half of the work week, as a weak upper trough pattern traverses over the mid Plains. An increase in cloud cover may keep afternoon highs Mon closer to the 90F mark, before a weak cold front out of the Plains states approaches the Mid South/TN Valley areas on Tue. Low chances of showers/tstms (20-30%) will develop along/ahead of the approaching front on Tue, as highs trend more in the upper 80s/near 90F. Lows into early Tue also look to remain in the mid 60s/near 70F. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Friday) Issued at 152 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 The front will settle more into the region by the middle of next week and potentially stall invof the mid TN Valley heading into the end of the work week. The upper trough pattern will also translate thru the Midwest/OH Valley regions past mid week, maintaining a low chc of showers/tstms in the forecast thru the end of the forecast period. The lack of a stronger return flow pattern/associated influx of moisture will offset the prob for higher rain chances next week, although this could easily change pending future model runs. Slightly cooler air will at least filter into the area Wed thru Fri with the passage of the front, with afternoon highs trending more in the lower/mid 80s. This slightly cooler air will also result in lows predom in the lower/mid 60s thru the end of the work week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 632 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 With high pressure remaining layered across the southern Atlantic states, VFR conds are generally expected thru the TAF period. Some -br/MVFR vis are again possible early Sun morning, but the prob is not high enough to include in the forecast attm. Light/var winds will also become WSW near 5-7kt late this morning. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM....09 LONG TERM....09 AVIATION...09