329
FXUS64 KHUN 181920
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
220 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

A weak area of low pressure over the Carolina`s Piedmont should
continue slowly moving eastward. This mainly lower altitude low was
producing low clouds over the Tennessee Valley. Daytime heating and
mixing has helped make broken/overcast ceilings become more
scattered, especially near and south of the Tennessee River.

A loss of daytime heating and this moisture thinning should make for
generally clear skies tonight, especially over our more western
areas. The clear skies, light winds and plenty of residual moisture
from recent heavy rainfall could be conducive for the formation of
fog. Hi-res grand ensemble probabilistic guidance was hinting at
a medium to high chance (40-70%) of fog/low visibility occurrence,
with the higher chances more over NW Alabama (where the heaviest
recent rainfall occurred),and a lesser chance for our more eastern
areas given higher chances for residual clouds and a drier
ground. Lows tonight otherwise should cool into low/mid 60s with
light winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Saturday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

High pressure at the surface and aloft will be the main feature
controlling the areas sensible weather for the remainder of this
week. An upper level ridge building to the NE from Texas/Mexico
region should result in higher height/thickness values, and warmer
temperatures as we close out the week. Depending if the pesky lower
level clouds fade, high temperatures on Thursday should rise into
the mid/upper 80s, and the lower 90s Friday/Saturday. Lows in the
night times will range in the 60s. No rainfall is forecast for the
rest of this week.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Upper ridging will center over the Southeast toward the later half
of the weekend, and the forecast becomes a bit more uncertain
after that. The GFS has trended toward a tropical system
developing in the Gulf that could result in more humid conditions
along the coastal regions. How far inland that tropical air makes
it, if at all, remains in question and have stuck with blended
guidance for temps and rain chances at this range. Highs will
largely remain in the mid 80s to lower 90s each day through
Tuesday, with a low chance (10-20%) for showers and thunderstorms
Tuesday afternoon. Overnight lows will be on the warm side,
largely in the upper 60s which is also a good indicator that we
will see increasing moisture into the long term period. Something
to watch for in future updates.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

An area of stratus moving to the SW from NW TN to NW GA was
producing upper end MVFR CIGs (2000-3000 ft AGL) across much of
the area near and north of the TN River. Daytime heating should
result in the cloud bases rising to VFR, above MVFR threshold
(3000 ft AGL) this afternoon. VFR conditions are forecast from
the late afternoon into the late evening. Residual surface
moisture, clear to scattered clouds, and light winds will be
conducive for the formation of fog in the overnight. Higher
amounts of ground moisture over NW AL and better odds for clear
skies will enhance a risk of fog these areas. VSBY values could
fall to and below IFR. Improvements in CIG/VSBY values are
expected after daybreak Thu, with VFR weather expected from the
late morning onward.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RSB / Barron
SHORT TERM....RSB / Barron
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...RSB