919
FXUS64 KHUN 212341
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
641 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 602 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

A shower has developed in southwestern Dekalb county over the
past hour. Some additional isolated showers and thunderstorms
continue to develop along a weak convergence boundary that extends
from southeast Kentucky southwest into central/southwestern
Tennessee as well. A few mesoscale models show some isolated
activity possibly continuing in NE Alabama or moving into southern
middle Tennessee early this evening as that boundary slides
slightly southeast before this activity dissipates. Therefore, a
very isolated probability of a few showers or storms was added to
the forecast through that time. Not expecting anything very
strong, but brief heavy downpours and frequent lightning could
occur with a storm or two.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Tuesday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

The aforementioned upper ridge will generally progress east over
the northern Gulf coast through early next week. However, a few
subtle shortwaves may bring low chances (10-20%) of showers and a
storm or two to areas north of the Tennessee River both Sunday and
Monday afternoons. A more significant upper shortwave trough as
well as an approaching surface cold front is expected to increase
rain chances by Tuesday afternoon (low to medium; 15-40%). No
severe weather is forecast at this time. This pattern shift may
also cause a decrease in high temperatures, with highs beginning
in the upper 80s to lower 90s on Sunday and topping out in the mid
to upper 80s Tuesday afternoon. Lows will continue to be a bit
warm, in the upper 60s to lower 70s, due to elevated moisture
through Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Friday)
Issued at 152 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

The front will settle more into the region by the middle of next
week and potentially stall invof the mid TN Valley heading into
the end of the work week. The upper trough pattern will also
translate thru the Midwest/OH Valley regions past mid week,
maintaining a low chc of showers/tstms in the forecast thru the
end of the forecast period. The lack of a stronger return flow
pattern/associated influx of moisture will offset the prob for
higher rain chances next week, although this could easily change
pending future model runs. Slightly cooler air will at least
filter into the area Wed thru Fri with the passage of the front,
with afternoon highs trending more in the lower/mid 80s. This
slightly cooler air will also result in lows predom in the
lower/mid 60s thru the end of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Light winds and clear skies should provide VFR conditions  at
both terminals through much of the period. Included patchy fog at
KHSV, that could briefly reduce VSBYS to around 5 SM around
daybreak. For now, leaving this out of KMSL terminal, but it may
need to be added in next issuance.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....26
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...KTW