996
FXUS64 KHUN 211932
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
232 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

An upper ridge over the southern Plains extending eastward over
the Southeast and up into the Ohio Valley will persist through at
least tonight. The few showers that were to our northwest earlier
today have since diminished; however, looking farther upstream
over northeast Arkansas and far western Tennessee, a complex of
showers with embedded thunderstorms continues. Although, these
have weakened since this morning and are anticipated to further
weaken with the sunset. Therefore, they will not be a threat to
our local area. Overall, expect mostly clear skies and the
potential for another night of patchy fog. Lows are forecast to be
a touch warm, merely dipping into the upper 60s to around 70
degrees later tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Tuesday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

The aforementioned upper ridge will generally progress east over
the northern Gulf coast through early next week. However, a few
subtle shortwaves may bring low chances (10-20%) of showers and a
storm or two to areas north of the Tennessee River both Sunday and
Monday afternoons. A more significant upper shortwave trough as
well as an approaching surface cold front is expected to increase
rain chances by Tuesday afternoon (low to medium; 15-40%). No
severe weather is forecast at this time. This pattern shift may
also cause a decrease in high temperatures, with highs beginning
in the upper 80s to lower 90s on Sunday and topping out in the mid
to upper 80s Tuesday afternoon. Lows will continue to be a bit
warm, in the upper 60s to lower 70s, due to elevated moisture
through Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Friday)
Issued at 152 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

The front will settle more into the region by the middle of next
week and potentially stall invof the mid TN Valley heading into
the end of the work week. The upper trough pattern will also
translate thru the Midwest/OH Valley regions past mid week,
maintaining a low chc of showers/tstms in the forecast thru the
end of the forecast period. The lack of a stronger return flow
pattern/associated influx of moisture will offset the prob for
higher rain chances next week, although this could easily change
pending future model runs. Slightly cooler air will at least
filter into the area Wed thru Fri with the passage of the front,
with afternoon highs trending more in the lower/mid 80s. This
slightly cooler air will also result in lows predom in the
lower/mid 60s thru the end of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

VFR conditions continue through the TAF period. There is a low
chance of fog during the overnight hours through early Sunday
morning, however, confidence is too low to include it in the
official TAF package at this time.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....26
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...HC