516
FXUS64 KHUN 181744
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1244 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today)
Issued at 1003 CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

The forecast for the Tennessee Valley for the most part is on
track with dry weather continuing, and high temperatures rising
into the mid 80s. An area of moisture associated with a weak area
of low pressure which was heading eastbound across the Carolinas,
was bringing stratus over KY/TN and southward. These Marginal
Visual Flight Rules clouds, with cloud bases of 2000-3000 ft AGL
have moved across parts of far northern Alabama, with reduced
ceilings noted over Fayetteville and Winchester, and Scottsboro.
If the progress of these clouds continue, MVFR ceilings are
possible around the Huntsville and Quad Cities area in the late
morning. A presence of these clouds will keep temperatures on a
slightly cooler trend. Should they dissipate quicker than is
currently anticipated, we may need to boost them a little.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

The main forecast concern will continue to be fog each night with
the combination of clear and calm conditions each night and recent
rainfall. Will see little change in the overall synoptic pattern
as the aforementioned upper low weekend and tracks northeast up
the Atlantic coast and upper ridging slowly shifts east. This will
result in warming temperatures into the weekend, with highs in
the upper 80s/lower 90s and lows in the mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Upper ridging will center over the Southeast toward the later half
of the weekend, and the forecast becomes a bit more uncertain
after that. The GFS has trended toward a tropical system
developing in the Gulf that could result in more humid conditions
along the coastal regions. How far inland that tropical air makes
it, if at all, remains in question and have stuck with blended
guidance for temps and rain chances at this range. Highs will
largely remain in the mid 80s to lower 90s each day through
Tuesday, with a low chance (10-20%) for showers and thunderstorms
Tuesday afternoon. Overnight lows will be on the warm side,
largely in the upper 60s which is also a good indicator that we
will see increasing moisture into the long term period. Something
to watch for in future updates.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

An area of stratus moving to the SW from NW TN to NW GA was
producing upper end MVFR CIGs (2000-3000 ft AGL) across much of
the area near and north of the TN River. Daytime heating should
result in the cloud bases rising to VFR, above MVFR threshold
(3000 ft AGL) this afternoon. VFR conditions are forecast from
the late afternoon into the late evening. Residual surface
moisture, clear to scattered clouds, and light winds will be
conducive for the formation of fog in the overnight. Higher
amounts of ground moisture over NW AL and better odds for clear
skies will enhance a risk of fog these areas. VSBY values could
fall to and below IFR. Improvements in CIG/VSBY values are
expected after daybreak Thu, with VFR weather expected from the
late morning onward.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...RSB