Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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814 FXUS64 KHUN 150741 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 241 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .NEAR TERM... (Today) Issued at 241 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Unseasonably hot/dry conditions will continue across the mid TN Valley today, as a strong upper ridge pattern out of the Plains states builds eastward into the SE region. A weak frontal boundary located north of the area may also drift southward later today, but this feature is expected to have little impact on the sensible wx. Otherwise, high pressure layered across the mid/NE Atlantic states will help usher warmer air into the area out of the east. This combined with the approach of the upper ridge will translate into afternoon highs once again in the lower/mid 90s. With dew pts trending in the upper 60s/near 70F, max heat indices later today may reach the 100F mark in parts of NW/north central AL. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 241 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 The stagnant frontal boundary will then diminish tonight/into Sun, as a return flow pattern develops over much of the region. High pressure becoming layered over more of the Atlantic Basin will help usher moisture back into the area, along with a continuation of unseasonably warmer air. The upper ridge pattern will also drift more to the east for the second half of the weekend period, thereby helping to maintain unseasonably hot temps. Lows tonight look to fall into the lower 70s/near 70F, before temps rebound more into the mid/perhaps upper 90s later in the day Sun. With dew pts also around the 70F mark, max heat indices look to range between 100-105F for most spots, although the coverage of 105F heat indices Sun afternoon does not warrant a Heat Advisory at this time. With the increase in moisture coupled with SBCAPE values around 2-3K J/kg, a low end chc for showers/tstms (20%) also looks to develop during the afternoon hrs Sun. The upper ridge pattern will then become more centered across the southern Atlantic states Mon, allowing more of an active southerly flow pattern aloft to develop. With the sfc high to the east continuing to usher Gulf moisture back into the area, a low chc for showers/tstms (20-30%) will continue for the afternoon/early evening hrs Mon. While overall deep layer shear will be minimal both Sun/Mon, the pulse like naure of any convection may allow for a few stronger storms capable of gusty winds/brief heavy rainfall. Overnight lows both Sun/Mon nights look to remain in the lower 70s/near 70F, while afternoon highs Mon trend more in the lower 90s/near 90F, given the slight increase in cloud cover/rainfall. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 241 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Strong upper level high pressure on Tuesday should be situated over the Mid Atlantic with maximum heights around 594 decameters. It will build somewhat more to the NE, and amplify to near 600 decameters over the New York City region Wednesday, then weaken somewhat and build more southward in the latter portion of next week. Despite the presence of the upper ridge, deep moisture from the Gulf surging inland will keep more clouds than sun in the forecast on Tue/Wed. This moisture with precipitable water amounts nearing 2 inches across parts of NW Alabama will keep lower end chances of showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday. Despite the clouds and rain chances, rather warm and muggy conditions are forecast with highs rising to around 90, and heat index values into the mid/upper 90s. The moisture surge should be suppressed more to our west late Wednesday into Thursday, thus back to dry conditions for the rest of the abbreviated work week. High temps on Juneteenth/Wednesday will warm into the lower 90s, and mid 90s Thursday and Friday. Heat index values on Wed should range in the lower 90s, and mid 90s for Thu/Fri. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1150 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Other than a dry and weak frontal boundary dropping into the area early Sat morning, high pressure to the east should help maintain VFR conds thru the TAF period. Light/var winds are also expected thru the afternoon/evening hrs Sat. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...09 SHORT TERM....09 LONG TERM....RSB AVIATION...09