Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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795 FXUS64 KHUN 270355 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1055 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .NEAR TERM... (rest of Tonight) Issued at 1055 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 We`re are sending this out earlier than normal, given high chances of severe weather as we go into the overnight. As of this writing, severe storms were raging from SW Illinois, western Kentucky, and SE Missouri. Tornado Watch #326 has recently been issued for our Tennessee counties (Lincoln, Moore, Franklin) until 5 AM. The latest model trends has a Quasi-Linear Convective System (squall line) nearing far NW Alabama around midnight. Some of the models were hinting at cellular development before the main line arrives. In either case, all modes of severe weather (wind gusts greater than 60 mph, hail larger than 1", tornadoes) are possible. Discrete cells preceding the line will be be more tornado prone in our sheared and unstable environment. The line should rapidly move across the area in a NW-SE orientation in the overnight. New guidance has slowed down the progress of the QLCS to the SE, now hinting 1AM-4AM timeframe. The latter time, especially if tornadoes occurs could become more of an issue given the very late hour of occurrence. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Wednesday) Issued at 1055 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Given severe weather, only minor changes made this period. Shower and thunderstorm activity should wind down Memorial Day Monday, as a line of convection heads further to the south and east. A cold front should move across the area during the course of the day from NW-SE, with shower activity winding down. Dry and slightly cooler conditions will return Mon evening and continue into the midweek. Highs in the mid 80s on Mon/Tue will only rise to near 80 on Wed. Lows will range in the upper 50s to mid 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 1055 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Dry air continues through the end of the week as upper level ridging moves into the Tennessee Valley from the west. On Friday evening, an upper level shortwave allows low-medium rain chances to return to the area and continue through the weekend. During the long term period, highs are forecast to be in the upper 70s/80s with overnight lows in the 50s/60s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 656 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the early overnight hours ahead of a strong storm system expected to move through the area near and after midnight. Gusty south/southwesterly winds will persist through much of the overnight hours, with MVFR cigs arriving around 01z. Large hail, damaging winds, tornadoes, and heavy rain will all be possible with these storms overnight through Monday morning, and amendments to the TAFs may be needed overnight. Reductions to IFR/LIFR conditions are likely in heavier thunderstorms, between 06-12z being the greatest threat window. VFR conditions should resume by 12-14z. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...RSB SHORT TERM....RSB LONG TERM....HC AVIATION...25