223
FXUS64 KHUN 150002
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
702 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

For the rest of this afternoon and tonight, the area will fall
under the increasing influence of a ridge building to our west.
Cumulus that have managed to develop mainly along the higher
terrain will tend to dissipate later today, leaving mostly clear
sky conditions overnight. Light winds and a mostly clear sky will
help temperatures fall from highs in the upr 80s to mid 90s down
into the upr 60s and lower 70s by daybreak Saturday. Patchy fog
could form tonight mainly in lower terrain in eastern portions of
the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Monday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

A partially closed low will phase with a broad but low-amplitude
trough in the west today/tonight. This will lead to downstream
ridge development in the OH/TN Valleys through the weekend. This
will tend to halt the progression of a southward moving cold front
in the OH Valley observed in model analyses and sfc observations.
Most of the drier air and lower dew points poleward of the front
will likely not tend to make it into our area, except perhaps for
far NE portions of the area later Saturday.

The upr ridge and developing sfc high will continue to translate
eastward to the eastern side of the Appalachians on Sunday. Flow
around the sfc high will bring SSE winds and a slight increase in
low-lvl moisture into the area on Sunday. This increase may be
sufficient, when combined with heating of elevated terrain and
along differential heating boundaries, to ignite some isolated
showers/thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon. Sounding
thermal/moisture profiles suggest some strong wind potential with
high moisture loading (PWs ~1.7 to 1.9 in) and inverted-V low-lvl
profiles. Mid-lvl dry could aid local wind development potential,
but also serve to inhibit stronger cell growth. So, the threat
looks rather minimal at this time, nevertheless worth mentioning
here.

Otherwise, the main story for the weekend will be the increasingly
hot conditions underneath the building upr ridge. Temperature
conditions per heat indices and wet-bulb globe temps may be close
to heat advisory criteria, especially in/around the HSV and Quad-
cities areas on Sunday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Muggy conditions will continue Sunday night with lows only in the
low/mid 70s. A deep southerly flow will help return more moisture to
the area, with area dewpoints on Monday rising to around 70. This
moisture will also result in an increase in cloud cover, which should
put a slight damper on very warm to hot conditions that have likely
occurred over the weekend. Highs to start the new work week should
rise into the lower 90s, with heat index values in the mid/upper 90s.
Daytime heating and resultant instability from higher moisture
values, will bring lower end (20-30%) chance of showers and
thunderstorms to the valley Mon afternoon. Strong upper level high
pressure over the region will help warm the mid troposphere, which
should help reduce rain chances Mon evening.

This strong and warm upper ridging is forecast to amplify over the
states north and east of here (Mid Atlantic to New England) in the
course of the new week. The 500mb reflection of the upper high has
maximum height values near the 600 decameter range Wed/Thu from
Pennsylvania to New Hampshire. With lower heights more to the south
and west, our daily high temperatures for Tue/Wed/Thu should range
mainly in the lower 90s, and lows in the lower 70s. Somewhat lower
levels of moisture should result in dry conditions for this
timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 656 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Expect winds to become light and variable this evening. However,
they should pick up after midnight towards 9Z to around 5 knots or
a bit higher. This should keep fog at bay. If winds end up staying
light longer overnight, some fog may develop that could reduce
VSBYS into the MVFR range.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KDW
SHORT TERM....KDW
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...KTW