261
FXUS64 KHUN 160233
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
933 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

...New NEAR TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of tonight)
Issued at 933 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

A few showers and storms that developed earlier along on of two
boundaries draped across northern Alabama and Georgia have
primarily dissipated.

Some additional shower and thunderstorm have developed over the
past hour on the southern boundary that extends from Atlanta, GA
WNW to Ragland, AL to just southwest of Cullman county, AL. The
bulk of this activity remains over southwestern Georgia on the
southeastern portion of this boundary. Some of the mesoscale
models slowly move this boundary northeast tonight and into the
overnight hours. This boundary could bring an isolated shower or
storm to Cullman county through 1 AM. Otherwise, the loss of
daytime heating and weak lift overall overnight should allow this
activity to die off (even where north of where that cluster of
storms is in SW Georgia) before then.

There should be enough cloud cover associated with this boundary
to produce some partly to briefly mostly cloud conditions later
this evening and overnight. This should help keep overnight lows a
warmer than last night. The advection of very moist dewpoints
along that boundary as it pushes northward should be the main
driver that keeps our lows overnight into Sunday morning very
warm, only dropping into the 70 to 76 degree range over much of
northern Alabama and southern middle Tennessee. So not much of a
break from heat in some areas that experienced 95 to 98 degree
highs earlier today. Some fog could form overnight east of the
I-65 corridor and near bodies of water, but cloud cover might keep
that from occurring in most locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Tuesday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

What could be the hottest day of the year so far will arrive for
Fathers Day (Sunday), with the ridge setting up just east of the
area -- with mid to perhaps upper 90s highs forecast over a vast
majority of the forecast area once again. Slightly higher
dewpoints will put peak heat index values between 100-104 over
much of the area, with the HSV/DCU/MSL metro areas potentially
reaching 105 degrees for at least an hour or two. Limited amount
of Apparent T values greater than 105 prevented a Heat Advisory
issuance for now, but it should be noted that major heat impacts
to vulnerable populations may be felt tomorrow from the late
morning through the afternoon. Those that are sensitive heat
should take extra precautions and everyone should use common sense
and limit their time outdoors during the peak heating of the day.
Additionally, low chances for showers/storms will return to the
forecast Sunday afternoon -- favored along the higher terrain of
NE Alabama. This activity will pulse like in nature and very
limited in duration and intensity. Main threats with the strongest
storms will be localized gusty winds.

The ridge will become centered further east over the Carolinas,
with southerly flow continuing to advect moisture back into the
area on Monday. Low chances for diurnally driven storms will exist
again Monday afternoon/evening, but highs will be cooler in the
lower 90s. Stronger subsidence will limit our potential for
convection on Tuesday, but continued mostly sunny to partly cloudy
conditions will push highs into the lower 90s again.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 241 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Strong upper level high pressure on Tuesday should be situated over
the Mid Atlantic with maximum heights around 594 decameters. It will
build somewhat more to the NE, and amplify to near 600 decameters
over the New York City region Wednesday, then weaken somewhat and
build more southward in the latter portion of next week. Despite
the presence of the upper ridge, deep moisture from the Gulf
surging inland will keep more clouds than sun in the forecast on
Tue/Wed. This moisture with precipitable water amounts nearing 2
inches across parts of NW Alabama will keep lower end chances of
showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday. Despite the clouds and rain
chances, rather warm and muggy conditions are forecast with highs
rising to around 90, and heat index values into the mid/upper 90s.

The moisture surge should be suppressed more to our west late
Wednesday into Thursday, thus back to dry conditions for the rest of
the abbreviated work week. High temps on Juneteenth/Wednesday will
warm into the lower 90s, and mid 90s Thursday and Friday. Heat index
values on Wed should range in the lower 90s, and mid 90s for Thu/Fri.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 558 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

VFR conditions continue overnight through Sunday afternoon at both
KMSL and KHSV with light, variable winds. Sunday, low chances
(30%) of thunderstorms exists during the afternoon hours which
will allow a PROB30 group to be introduced at both sites for
possible MVFR conditions due to lowered visibilities.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....AMP
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...HC