641
FXUS64 KHUN 271956
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
256 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

An upper level trough axis and associated sfc front continues to
shift southeast through the local area, and has resulted in
scattered to numerous showers this afternoon. Expect this activity
to gradually decrease this evening as both synoptic and diurnal
support weaken. With that said, these showers have been heavy at
times and may lead to temporary periods of poor driving
conditions, so use caution if driving into the rain. Afternoon
temps have been suppressed into the mid to upper 80s, and the
recent rainfall has certainly helped cool some locations down into
the upper 70s. With clearing skies and light winds expected
overnight, will have to keep an eye out for areas of dense fog
heading into the morning hours. Not planning any fog related
headlines at the moment, but something to be mindful of when
heading out for the morning commute. Otherwise, expect overnight
lows in the upper 60s/lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Southerly flow will return to the area on Friday as broad upper
ridging spreads east from the central Plains. This will lead to
increasing temperatures through the weekend with daily chances for
showers and storms, mainly diurnally driven during peak heating
hours. Shower/storm chances will be highest Saturday afternoon and
evening, ranging from 40-60% along and west of I-65 and topping
out near 70% over northeast AL. Afternoon highs will top out in
the upper 80s/lower 90s through Saturday, and with the increasing
Gulf humidity, some locations could near Heat Advisory criteria on
Saturday. Please remember to stay hydrated and take frequent
breaks indoors or in shaded areas if spending time outdoors, as
well as making sure outdoor pets/livestock have adequate heat
protection. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s each
night, offering little relief from the heat. Fog will also be
possible each night, but low confidence due to questions about
cloud cover.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Sunday will bring a greater excessive heat risk, with
temperatures warming a few more degrees with the building 8-5h
heat dome across the southern U.S. However, a cold front will be
undercutting the ridge on Sunday across the central Plains into
the TN valley, will also bring our PoPs up above 50% for all
areas, especially by midday into the afternoon hours. Gusty winds
and frequent lightning will be the main hazards.

As an upper trough drops into the northeast and mid Atlantic early
next week, the 5h ridge will amplify and shift further east into
the Gulf and Mid South regions. We will get some relief from
the muggy conditions Monday into Tuesday before southerly flow
redevelops by the middle of next week and brings sultry air back
north along with highs back in the middle to upper 90s. Thus,
excessive heat risk will increase once again. However, there is
also some indication that the westerlies at 5h may flatten the
upper high a bit by the middle of next week, including
Independence Day, which may bring another boundary and potential
MCS clusters further south into Mid South and TN valley.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 120 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Scattered to numerous showers are currently developing near KHSV
and KMSL as of 18z. Some storms may develop later this afternoon
if we get more instability. MVFR conditions are predominately
expected at both KHSV and KMSL through a least 00z as we expect
lower ceilings with surrounding showers and storms. Winds
generally should be out of the NE at about 5-10 kts across the
area. After 00z, any showers and storms should begin to dissipate
and allow for better conditions at both terminals.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...Serre