806
FXUS64 KHUN 260046
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
746 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

High pressure continues to run the table through tonight.
Conditions should be mostly clear, with lows in the 70s across the
entire TN Valley. Overnight fog is unlikely as the drier air
(with dewpoints in the 60s) should help to counter any moistening
of the surface. Winds should also be light and variable.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Friday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

A weakness in the ridge takes place Wednesday as a short wave
trough dives to the southeast across the lower Midwest and into
the TN Valley. Timing on this appears to be after 18z for western
portions of the area, to around 00z Thursday for the lower
Appalachians. There does exist the possibility of isolated strong
to severe storms along the disturbance. Steeper lapse rates, along
with moderate CAPE values may help with promoting stronger
storms. Most storms should remain linear as bulk shear values are
forecast to be low-moderate. Following this short wave, the ridge
rebuilds from the west on Thursday. Highs on Thursday and Friday
should be lower than on Wednesday, but still warm, around the low
90s. Dewpoints do remain higher, closer to 70-75.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

From Friday into the weekend, southerly flow will redevelop in
low levels, elevating dew points into the lower to perhaps middle
70s. With highs staying in the lower to middle 90s, heat index
values may reach 105+ in some areas, mainly central and west both
days. The good news is, pulse afternoon convection is expected to
develop Saturday afternoon, and then another cold front undercuts
the 5h ridge across the region and arrives sometime Sunday
depending on the model solution. So, we may get breaks in the heat
at times both days due to thunderstorms. However, the front will
be weakening and will likely lift back north by late Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 741 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Conditions will remain VFR at the HSV/MSL terminals this evening
and overnight, with a notable increase in the coverage of high-lvl
convective debris clouds (originating from multiple clusters of
TSRA spreading east-southeastward from the Mid-MO Valley into the
Lower-OH Valley) anticipated during the early morning hours.
Although this will reduce the risk for nocturnal fog development,
some patchy BR/FG will still be possible btwn 8-13Z (but near
large bodies of water). Shortly after 12Z, we expect to see an
even greater increase in the coverage of mid/high-lvl clouds as a
developing MCS across southeastern MO begins to drop southward
thru the Mid-South region. Present indications are that the
eastern edge of this MCS may clip the western portion of our CWFA
(where moisture/instability will be greatest) tomorrow aftn, with
PROB30 groups for TSRA included at MSL/20-24Z and HSV/22-24Z. Lgt
NW sfc flow will back to SW later this evening, with prevailing
speeds increasing to arnd 10 kts tomorrow morning.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Serre
SHORT TERM...Serre
LONG TERM...17
AVIATION...70/DD