Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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329 FXUS64 KHUN 181920 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 220 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM... .NEAR TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 215 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 A weak area of low pressure over the Carolina`s Piedmont should continue slowly moving eastward. This mainly lower altitude low was producing low clouds over the Tennessee Valley. Daytime heating and mixing has helped make broken/overcast ceilings become more scattered, especially near and south of the Tennessee River. A loss of daytime heating and this moisture thinning should make for generally clear skies tonight, especially over our more western areas. The clear skies, light winds and plenty of residual moisture from recent heavy rainfall could be conducive for the formation of fog. Hi-res grand ensemble probabilistic guidance was hinting at a medium to high chance (40-70%) of fog/low visibility occurrence, with the higher chances more over NW Alabama (where the heaviest recent rainfall occurred),and a lesser chance for our more eastern areas given higher chances for residual clouds and a drier ground. Lows tonight otherwise should cool into low/mid 60s with light winds. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Saturday) Issued at 215 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 High pressure at the surface and aloft will be the main feature controlling the areas sensible weather for the remainder of this week. An upper level ridge building to the NE from Texas/Mexico region should result in higher height/thickness values, and warmer temperatures as we close out the week. Depending if the pesky lower level clouds fade, high temperatures on Thursday should rise into the mid/upper 80s, and the lower 90s Friday/Saturday. Lows in the night times will range in the 60s. No rainfall is forecast for the rest of this week. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Tuesday) Issued at 239 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Upper ridging will center over the Southeast toward the later half of the weekend, and the forecast becomes a bit more uncertain after that. The GFS has trended toward a tropical system developing in the Gulf that could result in more humid conditions along the coastal regions. How far inland that tropical air makes it, if at all, remains in question and have stuck with blended guidance for temps and rain chances at this range. Highs will largely remain in the mid 80s to lower 90s each day through Tuesday, with a low chance (10-20%) for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon. Overnight lows will be on the warm side, largely in the upper 60s which is also a good indicator that we will see increasing moisture into the long term period. Something to watch for in future updates. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1244 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 An area of stratus moving to the SW from NW TN to NW GA was producing upper end MVFR CIGs (2000-3000 ft AGL) across much of the area near and north of the TN River. Daytime heating should result in the cloud bases rising to VFR, above MVFR threshold (3000 ft AGL) this afternoon. VFR conditions are forecast from the late afternoon into the late evening. Residual surface moisture, clear to scattered clouds, and light winds will be conducive for the formation of fog in the overnight. Higher amounts of ground moisture over NW AL and better odds for clear skies will enhance a risk of fog these areas. VSBY values could fall to and below IFR. Improvements in CIG/VSBY values are expected after daybreak Thu, with VFR weather expected from the late morning onward. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...RSB / Barron SHORT TERM....RSB / Barron LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...RSB