Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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210 FXUS64 KHUN 182343 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 643 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 215 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 A weak area of low pressure over the Carolina`s Piedmont should continue slowly moving eastward. This mainly lower altitude low was producing low clouds over the Tennessee Valley. Daytime heating and mixing has helped make broken/overcast ceilings become more scattered, especially near and south of the Tennessee River. A loss of daytime heating and this moisture thinning should make for generally clear skies tonight, especially over our more western areas. The clear skies, light winds and plenty of residual moisture from recent heavy rainfall could be conducive for the formation of fog. Hi-res grand ensemble probabilistic guidance was hinting at a medium to high chance (40-70%) of fog/low visibility occurrence, with the higher chances more over NW Alabama (where the heaviest recent rainfall occurred),and a lesser chance for our more eastern areas given higher chances for residual clouds and a drier ground. Lows tonight otherwise should cool into low/mid 60s with light winds. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Saturday) Issued at 215 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 High pressure at the surface and aloft will be the main feature controlling the areas sensible weather for the remainder of this week. An upper level ridge building to the NE from Texas/Mexico region should result in higher height/thickness values, and warmer temperatures as we close out the week. Depending if the pesky lower level clouds fade, high temperatures on Thursday should rise into the mid/upper 80s, and the lower 90s Friday/Saturday. Lows in the night times will range in the 60s. No rainfall is forecast for the rest of this week. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Tuesday) Issued at 239 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Upper ridging will center over the Southeast toward the later half of the weekend, and the forecast becomes a bit more uncertain after that. The GFS has trended toward a tropical system developing in the Gulf that could result in more humid conditions along the coastal regions. How far inland that tropical air makes it, if at all, remains in question and have stuck with blended guidance for temps and rain chances at this range. Highs will largely remain in the mid 80s to lower 90s each day through Tuesday, with a low chance (10-20%) for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon. Overnight lows will be on the warm side, largely in the upper 60s which is also a good indicator that we will see increasing moisture into the long term period. Something to watch for in future updates. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 646 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Not much has changed since the previous issuance for the terminals. Shortly after 1Z, winds should become light and variable. These winds and partly cloudy to mostly clear skies primarily should allow for VSBYS restrictions due to fog development overnight to around 12Z. Confidence is lower at KHSV given some guidance and the possibility of a bit more cloud cover occurring overnight. Due to this possibility, kept VSBYS due to fog higher at KHSV (only dropping to around 5SM). Higher confidence exists that clouds will be much less prevalent at KMSL. Thus, kept VSBYS dropping to MVFR (5SM) around 8Z and to 1 1/2SM between 9Z and 12Z at KMSL. Winds should stay light after 19/12Z. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...RSB SHORT TERM....RSB LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...KTW