Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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516 FXUS64 KHUN 181744 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1244 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Rest of Today) Issued at 1003 CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 The forecast for the Tennessee Valley for the most part is on track with dry weather continuing, and high temperatures rising into the mid 80s. An area of moisture associated with a weak area of low pressure which was heading eastbound across the Carolinas, was bringing stratus over KY/TN and southward. These Marginal Visual Flight Rules clouds, with cloud bases of 2000-3000 ft AGL have moved across parts of far northern Alabama, with reduced ceilings noted over Fayetteville and Winchester, and Scottsboro. If the progress of these clouds continue, MVFR ceilings are possible around the Huntsville and Quad Cities area in the late morning. A presence of these clouds will keep temperatures on a slightly cooler trend. Should they dissipate quicker than is currently anticipated, we may need to boost them a little. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday) Issued at 239 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 The main forecast concern will continue to be fog each night with the combination of clear and calm conditions each night and recent rainfall. Will see little change in the overall synoptic pattern as the aforementioned upper low weekend and tracks northeast up the Atlantic coast and upper ridging slowly shifts east. This will result in warming temperatures into the weekend, with highs in the upper 80s/lower 90s and lows in the mid 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Tuesday) Issued at 239 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Upper ridging will center over the Southeast toward the later half of the weekend, and the forecast becomes a bit more uncertain after that. The GFS has trended toward a tropical system developing in the Gulf that could result in more humid conditions along the coastal regions. How far inland that tropical air makes it, if at all, remains in question and have stuck with blended guidance for temps and rain chances at this range. Highs will largely remain in the mid 80s to lower 90s each day through Tuesday, with a low chance (10-20%) for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon. Overnight lows will be on the warm side, largely in the upper 60s which is also a good indicator that we will see increasing moisture into the long term period. Something to watch for in future updates. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1244 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 An area of stratus moving to the SW from NW TN to NW GA was producing upper end MVFR CIGs (2000-3000 ft AGL) across much of the area near and north of the TN River. Daytime heating should result in the cloud bases rising to VFR, above MVFR threshold (3000 ft AGL) this afternoon. VFR conditions are forecast from the late afternoon into the late evening. Residual surface moisture, clear to scattered clouds, and light winds will be conducive for the formation of fog in the overnight. Higher amounts of ground moisture over NW AL and better odds for clear skies will enhance a risk of fog these areas. VSBY values could fall to and below IFR. Improvements in CIG/VSBY values are expected after daybreak Thu, with VFR weather expected from the late morning onward. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...RSB SHORT TERM....25 LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...RSB