968
FXUS64 KHUN 222242
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
542 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Clusters of showers with a couple embedded storms developed this
afternoon, especially to our northeast. A few showers are
currently progressing over our area, but no lightning has been
observed with them thus far. With between 1000-2000 J/kg of
surface instability, the potential for a few thunderstorms remains
through the afternoon. Overall, low chances (15-30%) of showers
and storms continues, mainly for areas along and north of the
Tennessee River, through early this evening. With the loss of
daytime heating, shower/storm activity will then dwindle, with no
rain forecast overnight. There is a low chance for patchy fog
tonight, especially for the more sheltered locations, areas near
bodies of water, and for spots that saw rain today. Lastly, it
will be another warm night with temperatures merely dipping into
the upper 60s to around 70 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

The upper ridge that influenced this weekend`s weather is
expected to be pushed southeast through early this week as an
upper trough digs down into the southern Plains and ArkLaMiss
region from the Midwest. At the same time, an area of surface low
pressure is expected to develop over Arkansas by Monday afternoon
and progress northeast up into the Ohio Valley by midweek. A cold
front associated with this feature looks to then slowly approach
the Tennessee Valley through at least Tuesday.

There remains uncertainty in how potent this surface boundary
will be as well as how far southeast it will progress. This will
have a significant impact on our rainfall chances and totals on
Tuesday and into Wednesday. At this point, anticipating low
(15-30%) chances of showers and storms generally along and north
of the Tennessee River again on Monday. This will then be followed
by low to medium (40-60%) chances over the northwestern portion
of our local area (northwest Alabama, southern middle Tennessee,
and portions of north-central and northeastern Alabama) on
Tuesday, with 30-40% chances over the southeast. Additionally,
guidance indicates instability values between 500-1500 J/kg with
30-40 knots of bulk shear Tuesday afternoon. Therefore, this will
be something to watch as these conditions may lead to a low chance
of a few strong to severe storms. However, at this time, we are
currently not outlooked for severe weather by SPC.

Highs are forecast to top out in the lower 90s on Monday, but
perhaps be a touch cooler, in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees,
on Tuesday due to increased cloud cover and shower/storm chances.
Meanwhile, lows will continue to be warm, with temperatures in the
upper 60s to lower 70s Monday night and mid to upper 60s Tuesday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 438 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Latest extended range guidance from the global models indicates
that the remnant frontal boundary/low-level convergence axis will
remain positioned across our region on Wednesday/Wednesday night,
resulting in a continuation of medium chances for showers and
thunderstorms. Due primarily to clouds and precipitation, highs on
Wednesday should fall back into the u70s-l80s, with lows on
Thursday morning in the l-m 60s. Beyond this point in the
forecast, uncertainty increases considerably due to the potential
development of a tropical cyclone in the Gulf of Mexico. Aside
from the fact that the system has not even begun to develop, the
cyclone`s eventual path will likely be dictated by both the cutoff
low to our west and a subtropical high off the southeastern
Atlantic Coast, and the models currently offer a vast array of
solutions on where these features will be located and when. Thus,
we have deviated very little from blended guidance and indicated a
gradual decreasing trend in POPs through the end of the week,
with full acknowledgement that they could be increased
significantly or pulled out altogether in future forecast updates.
High temperatures will also be dependent on the amount of cloud
cover and precipitation in our region but should generally remain
in the u70s-l80s through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 542 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

VFR conditions continue through the TAF period at both KMSL and
KHSV. There is a very low chance of fog formation overnight into
Monday morning, however, confidence is low in this and it has been
left out of the official TAF package. There is a low chance of
showers/storms Monday afternoon in the vicinity of the terminals
which may cause MVFR conditions if they move directly over the
terminals.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....26
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...HC