215
FXUS63 KICT 190730
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
230 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Potential for showers and storms this morning and later today mainly
  along and east of Interstate 35.

- Warm today and tomorrow.

- Much cooler temperatures coming this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Water vapor imagery this morning indicates a 100-kt upper jet over
the Four Corners region. One trough sits over the Canadian Plains,
while another spins just off the California coast. At the surface, a
surface trough continues to extend from South Dakota and into
western Kansas. A few showers have tried to develop this morning
across central and southeast Kansas out ahead of a strengthening LLJ.

PRECIPITATION...

Chances for a few isolated showers will hold on through the morning
hours today thanks to persistent mid-level WAA. Highest confidence
lies in north central Kansas and along/east of Interstate 35. After
a brief break, chances will return this afternoon as the
aforementioned surface trough encounters a moisture axis oriented
along and to the east of Interstate 35 once again by late afternoon.
Short-term CAM guidance suggests moderate instability (1500+ J/kg)
and shear (30-40 kts), so the primary concerns with the strongest
storms will be wind gusts up to 60 mph and half-dollar sized hail.

The return of the LLJ Friday evening will provide the next chance
for showers across central KS, especially in areas along and north
of US-50. Much better chances for rain will come Saturday night into
Sunday as a cold front associated with a strong upper trough in the
Northern Plains makes its way south across Nebraska and Kansas.
Still looks at this time like the best chances lie in northern
portions of Kansas.

TEMPERATURES...

Afternoon high temperatures well above average will prevail across
the forecast area today and tomorrow in south central and southeast
Kansas, with the warmest temperatures at or above 100 degrees along
the Kansas-Oklahoma border. A notable cooldown will come with the
arrival of the cold front Saturday night into Sunday morning, with
widespread highs in the low to middle 70s to start next week.
&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

A rogue elevated storm or two will be hard to rule out during
the overnight hours with some accas lingering over much of the
area on the eastern periphery of the nocturnal LLJ. Cloud bases
are around 11k ft so VFR is expected to prevail but a brief
shower may drive visibilities to MVFR briefly. LLWS conditions
are expected to linger trough around 12Z-13Z at our central KS
TAF sites. A weak frontal boundary/trough axis at the surface
will build eastward to around the Kansas Turnpike late this
afternoon before stalling. Wind in it`s wake will shift to the
southwest. Winds will gradually veer to the northwest as we
move into the evening and overnight hours over central and
portions of south central KS while southerly winds will prevail
in southeast KS.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...MWM