442
FXUS63 KICT 262339
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
639 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorm potential (50-60%) early Thursday morning mainly in
northern KS and again Thursday evening into the overnight

- Cooler Thursday but warmer on Friday with heat indices of 100-109

- Temperatures and heat indices around 100 degrees early next week

- Chances for showers and storms each evening/overnight with the
  highest confidence in north central KS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Challenges:

1) Precipitation chances, coverage and intensity

2) Temperatures on Thu

Changes:

1) Delayed arrival of precipitation until 9-12Z(4-7AM)

2) Some adjustments to precip chances and temperatures


Temperatures were somewhat cooler this afternoon compared to
yesterday depending on your location with a greater disparity by
about 10 degrees in north central Kansas to about 5 degrees in
southern Kansas. Heat indices were mainly in the 90s with a few
locations across southern Kansas reaching the century mark. An
occasional breeze helped the feels like factor.

The wave that came off of the Great Basin continues to track east
into the Front Range. Convective initiation is anticipated in
response along the Front Range late this afternoon/early this
evening which will gradually push to the east. General model
consensus even in the shorter term CAMs is that this activity won`t
reach central Kansas until closer to 9-12Z (4-7AM). Therefore the
precipitation chances have been shifted later than previously
forecast. Higher confidence exists for showers and storms over north
central Kansas with less certainty in the southern extent depending
on how things hold together; 50-60% chances exist over the northern
locations. Intensity of the storms should be decreasing the further
east that they track; however, you cannot rule out strong gusty
marginally severe winds. As mentioned in the previous discussion,
the high precipitable water values means heavy rainfall too.

Another wave will move into the High Plains Thursday afternoon
prompting the next round of shower and storm potential during the
evening into the overnight hours; this would be in addition to any
outflow boundaries from the early morning activity. Convective
initiation may start out west then move east with the highest
chances (40-50%) over northern Kansas, but it could occur along the
outflow boundaries of north central Kansas with the aid of diurnal
heating. A similar story is expected for Friday evening and night.
There is more frontogenesis for the latter time period with the
boundary hanging out across southern Kansas on Saturday which would
shift the higher potential across southern Kansas instead from the
afternoon through the overnight hours. The best chances (50-65%) are
after midnight. After that the ridge builds in with the main
precipitation potential shifting off to the north. Some of the
development in the High Plains could clip north central Kansas
depending on what develops out west with 20-30% chances in each late
evening/overnight period. Another wave on Tuesday could spread those
chances further south.

Forecast temperatures are essentially like bouncing a ball back and
forth with values near the century mark then closer to or below
seasonal normal (90 degrees) for a day or two before rising back up
again. Thursday should be cooler than today with afternoon high
temperatures ranging from the mid 80s to lower 90s which is near to
below seasonal normal. Depending on the cloud cover and lingering
precipitation, temperatures may need to be adjusted downward. A
mostly dry Friday means the bounce back to the century mark will
occur with heat indices around 105 to 109; thankfully a breezy day
is anticipated with wind speeds of 15 to 25 mph which should help
those working or spending time outdoors. The forecast ball bounces
down again for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 638 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

VFR conditions are expected at all sites through the critical
period. The primary aviation concern for the whole period will be
showers and storms encroaching on the area around sunrise. These
should remain elevated in nature, thus maintaining VFR cigs, but
gusty and variable winds will be likely with any storm in central
Kansas. Confidence regarding the coverage to the south and east for
these showers and storms remains low at this time, so mentioned as
PROB30 at KICT and KHUT. Otherwise, look for dry VFR conditions
through the remainder of the period.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...VJP
AVIATION...JWK