441
FXUS63 KICT 222334
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
634 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms in Eastern Kansas this
afternoon and evening

- Hot and humid conditions across the region into next week

- Next chance for rain looks to be Tuesday afternoon/evening

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Current satellite shows a weak frontal system slowly moving across
the region this afternoon and is accompanied by a monsoonal plume of
moisture from the Desert Southwest.  This stream of moisture has
served to bring PW values into 1.5 to 2.1 inch range this afternoon
which is well above normal for this time of year.  Combine this
moisture with approaching front and the risk of showers and
thunderstorms increase for this afternoon and into the evening. Most
of the short term ensembles and the CAMS are having difficultly
resolving this frontal system as the mid and upper level support is
rather weak. Additionally, deep layer shear is not that great over
the CWA at this time.  The better shear values are further to the
north and east of the CWA.  As such, there does not seem to be
enough forcing available or instability to really get a bunch of
showers and thunderstorms to start.  That said, do expect isolated
showers and thunderstorms to be present this evening.  This will
mainly be along and east of the Turnpike (I-35).  Given the high PW
values, any storm that does develop will be capable of heavy
downpours which could cause ponding on roadways or brief localized
flooding.  Another concern is the DCAPE values in Eastern Kansas
this afternoon which is in the 400-800 J/KG range.  This indicates a
strong potential, if storms develop, for storms to produce some
strong gusty winds into the 60 mph range. Wind appears to be the
main threat but some small hail is also possible with any storm that
develops. Any activity that does occur is expected to abate by early
morning Sunday.

Sunday through Tuesday will have some ridging building into the
region. This will keep the chances for showers and thunderstorms to
a minimum if at all but it will have the consequence of hot
conditions. Temperatures are likely to breech the century mark for
most areas of the CWA for the first time this year.  This will also
create heat indices of 105-110 across the CWA.  Monday and Tuesday
will have the best chance for these higher temperatures. Tuesday
afternoon, many of the ensembles are indicating an increased
potential for showers and thunderstorms which is likely to provide
some relief to the region. This will likely bring temperatures down
below the century mark for the remainder of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 626 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

There are minimal concerns for this forecast period for most
locations. A cool front is dropping southeast and just went
through KHUT. Breezy winds will diminish quickly this evening
before becoming light and variable for the overnight into Sunday
period. Isolated to scattered showers and storms may further
develop in eastern Kansas as the front tracks southeast.
Confidence is low in the occurrence for any given location thus
it was decided to use a tempo group for KCNU instead of VCTS
especially given the radar trends of the last couple of hours.
If a storm were to impact the site, it could produce downburst
winds of 60 mph, up to quarter sized hail and a period of heavy
rain. Otherwise VFR conditions should prevail.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Record highs for Monday and Tuesday:

             Monday          Tuesday

Wichita     103 (1980)      107 (1911)
Salina      107 (1937)      114 (1911)
Chanute     105 (1918)      104 (1933)
Russell     112 (2012)      108 (2012)

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ELM
AVIATION...VJP
CLIMATE...ELM