299
FXUS63 KICT 221726
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1226 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few strong/marginally severe storms possible this evening
  for locations generally east of I-135.

- Excessive heat possible for some areas on Monday and most of
  the area on Tuesday.

- Shower/storm chances with frontal passage by Tuesday night
  bringing brief heat relief for mid-week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Plenty of mid-level clouds with isolated/widely scattered
sprinkles early this morning within the residual high
precipitable water airmass. A hot afternoon is on tap ahead of a
modest cold front which will drop southward across central
Kansas by mid-afternoon. Diurnal heating is expected to result
MLcape values around 2000 j/kg in the presence of modest bulk
shear in vicinity of the frontal boundary. Convergence should be
sufficient to overcome weak capping for isolated to widely
scattered convection as the front sinks southward across the
Flint Hills into southern Kansas during the evening. A few
strong to marginally severe storms will be possible, mainly east
of the I-135 corridor with a risk for down-burst winds/hail.
Heat indices will generally climb into the 100 to 104 range
which remain below Heat Advisory criteria.

The frontal passage will only bring subtly lower temperatures in
some areas for Sunday with highs still climbing into the 90s.
The most intense heat is still expected for Monday and Tuesday
with highs around 100 degrees (highest west of the turnpike)
with heat indices around 105 on Monday afternoon and from 105 to
110 on Tuesday (highest along/east of I-135). Heat Advisory or
Excessive Heat Warnings will be needed for these early week
periods with future forecast issuances. Perhaps some brief heat
relief may come by late Tuesday into Wednesday with a weak
frontal passage, though temperatures should still average above
climo through the middle and end of next week.

Darmofal

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period. A weak cold
front is progressing across the area with winds shifting to the
west and eventually the north. A few showers and storms are
forecast to develop along this front late this afternoon into
the evening. The most likely terminal to be impacted by
convection is CNU and have introduced a VCTS mention from 1-4Z.
While a stray shower/storm cannot be ruled out at SLN/HUT/ICT,
confidence is too low mention at this point.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KED
AVIATION...BRF