Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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846 FXUS63 KICT 190541 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1241 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Gusty south winds expected through this evening. - Storms are expected to develop along a cold front mainly after 4 pm this afternoon and will become more widespread this evening as they track slowly southeastward. Large hail, damaging winds and heavy rain will be the main threats. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 139 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 A mid/upper trough remains situated over the Northern Rockies and Northern High Plains. At the surface, a cold front was nosing into northwest Kansas. This front appeared slightly faster or further south and east when compared to some of the 12Z guidance. We are still anticipating scattered storms developing within the frontal zone, especially after 21Z or 4 PM. This activity is expected to become more numerous after 00Z when the LLJ cranks up again. We continue to see plenty of buoyancy with 2000-3000 j/kg progged within a marginally sheared airmass. Steep lapse rates and high PWATs/deep warm layer clouds depths continue to support the ongoing forecast this evening with some damaging winds, large hail (especially with the initial updrafts) and locally heavy rainfall. Storms may train along the frontal zone leading to some excessive water as a persistent LLJ noses into parts of south central/central Kansas keeping a buoyant airmass in place supporting training of cells into the frontal zone with repeated rounds of heavy rainfall possible. Storms may begin to struggle with southeastward extent as they encounter more cinh across southern Kansas and confidence in where the axis heaviest precipitation falls remains fairly low. Showers and storms may linger into the morning hours Wednesday with clouds and rain cooled air over central KS keeping temperatures much cooler compared to recent days. Some locations may struggle to reach the mid 70s. Thu-Sat...The mid/upper ridge over the Mid-Atlantic area is progged to retrograde exerting a greater impact on the Central Plains area. This will lead to mostly dry weather conditions and rising temperatures through the period. Highs on Sat are expected to climb into the mid and upper 90s for many locations. A shortwave trough racing eastward across the Northern Plains on Saturday will allow another frontal boundary to move across Kansas. This front may provide a focus for deep moist convection late in the period. For Sunday through Tuesday, mid/upper ridging will bring rising heights and increasing thickness supporting rising temperatures across the area. A hot stretch is anticipated with highs around or above the century mark through the period. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1235 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Main aviation concern will be showers and storms throughout the day. Storms that developed along the cold front earlier this evening have continued to slowly track southeast overnight and have been maintained by an increasing low level jet. Current thinking is that storms will affect KICT-KHUT for the next few hours with mainly just showers at KGBD-KSLN. Confidence is high that after the more robust convection dissipates in a few hours, we will keep at least some showers and isolated storms around through much of the day as the surface boundary remains in place along with a very moist airmass. In addition, we may see some MVFR cigs develop over central KS this morning, mainly affecting KRSL- KGBD- KSLN. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MWM AVIATION...RBL