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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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305 FXUS63 KICT 281742 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1242 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot and humid conditions yielding heat index values up to 106 this afternoon - Strong to severe storms possible this evening into tonight - Active weather pattern into next week with roller-coaster-like temperatures && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 230 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 As of 230 AM Friday morning, rounds of convection have been ongoing across portions of south central KS in response to a 45-50 kt LLJ. As the jet continues to veer over the next few hours, the coverage of convection should decrease. Further north, a surface trough axis extends from northwest KS into central portions of NE and SD. This frontal zone is forecast to slide southward through the day today. Ahead of the front, another hot and humid afternoon is expected with temperatures surging towards 100 degrees. Coupling in dew points in the 60s to near 70 will create heat index values up to 106 with the warmest across southern and southeast KS. By late afternoon, the frontal zone will be positioned from central KS into northeast KS. While large scale ascent will remain quite meager, minimal inhibition and modest convergence along the boundary should allow for a few storms to develop. Inverted-V soundings and PW values above 1.5" will support damaging winds near 60 mph and heavy rainfall. A second area of convection may develop across northeast CO and adjacent areas of NE/KS. This convection may grow upscale and propagate southeastward. Again, large scale ascent remains weak, therefore confidence in MCS maintenance into central KS is quite low. The frontal zone will sag further south into Saturday before stalling near the OK state line. This should yield cooler temperatures for most areas with highs in the 80s and 90s. The warmest will be along the OK border. Again, large scale ascent will remain meager through the daytime hours Saturday, although weak convergence may yield a few storms. Better chances for storms arrive Saturday night into Sunday morning as 30-35 kt LLJ overspreads the frontal zone. The heat will return area-wide Monday and Tuesday as the front retreats northward and midlevel ridging amplifies overhead. Temperatures will once again approach the 100 degree mark. A northern stream trough will shunt the frontal zone southward into our area late Tuesday into Wednesday. This will set the stage for another break from the heat and additional storm chances through Thursday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1239 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Breezy southwest winds will affect southern Kansas this afternoon. Meanwhile a frontal boundary will push slowly southward across central Kansas this afternoon and reach southern Kansas later tonight. A few storms could develop along this the front but looks more isolated so won`t mention at this point. Winds will switch to the north then northeast during the late night and morning hours on Saturday. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-033- 047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100. && $$ DISCUSSION...BRF AVIATION...CDJ