Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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638 FXUS63 KICT 091732 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1232 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Near to below average temperatures today through Tuesday. - Temperatures warming near to above average Wednesday through the weekend. - Slight chances for showers/thunderstorms Tuesday, with off- and-on thunderstorm chances Thursday night through the weekend, but predictability is low this far out. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1238 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 OVERNIGHT--THIS MORNING...There are currently two areas of storms we are monitoring. The first is oriented west-east across central Kansas, within a zone of decent 800-650 confluence/frontogenesis. These storms will have the greatest potential for large hail (possibly up to half-dollar or ping-pong ball size) as it taps into a strong reservoir of instability to the south amidst around 40 kts of effective deep layer shear. These storms will also pose a very heavy rainfall and localized flooding threat, as they are slow- moving and training over the same areas, amidst above average precipitable waters. The second area of thunderstorms is racing east over portions of western and central Kansas. This squall line has developed a well- defined cold pool, and has a history of producing 60-80+ mph winds over western Kansas. We anticipate this threat for 60-80+ mph winds to shift east into south-central and possibly southeast Kansas overnight, with this squall line being sustained by deep easterly low-level flow amidst strong instability and adequate effective deep layer shear. The hail threat should be lower with this second area of storms since it`s more forward propagating/linear. While there will be locally heavy rainfall, the potential for flooding will probably be lower with this 2nd area of storms since it`ll be moving faster. THIS AFTERNOON--WEDNESDAY...A post-frontal airmass will support near to below average temperatures along with dry conditions this afternoon through Monday. For Tuesday, a meandering upper low could bring a few showers/thunderstorms to the region, although model trends have been backing off on these chances. Temperatures will be warming back up closer to normal levels by Wednesday. THURSDAY--SUNDAY...Near to above normal temperatures are probable late week into next weekend. Could be looking at a few chances for thunderstorms starting Thursday night, as a frontal zone oozes south into Mid-America, along with a few ripples in the west-northwest flow aloft. These chances look to persist through next weekend, as model consensus progresses an upper trough east into Mid- America. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Residual clouds from the overnight MCS are gradually moving off to the south as northeasterly winds usher in high pressure. Any CIGS below 020 will gradually dissipate by 20z. Winds will remain northeasterly overnight, turning southeasterly Monday afternoon. Conditions through then primarily VFR. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADK AVIATION...KRC