190
FXUS63 KICT 162002
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
302 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storms dwindling across central KS

- Additional storms expected across western KS this afternoon, may
  move into central KS this evening and overnight

- The best chances for more-widespread storms arrive Tuesday evening
  into Tuesday night and over the weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

As of 245 PM, persistent WAA rooted near 700 mb continues to
generate convection across portions of central KS. The zone of best
WAA will continue to progress eastward and out of the forecast hour
in the next couple of hours. Our attention then turns westward to a
sharpening dryline across western KS. A cumulus field should
gradually deepen through late afternoon. A subtle shortwave trough
across northern NM is forecast to emerge into the Plains late this
afternoon into the evening. This feature should aid in thunderstorm
development along the dryline. Considerable uncertainty remains
whether these storms can reach central KS given substantial surface
based inhibition across central KS. As the night progresses
additional elevated convection is possible across central KS.
Similar to this morning, no severe weather is expected but heavy
rain and small hail are possible.

Transitioning into Tuesday evening, a stronger midlevel shortwave
trough, currently across the southern CA coast, will eject into the
central and northern High Plains. Widespread convection is expected
along the dryline from NE through KS. A strengthening LLJ should
allow convection to percolate eastward and into portions of central
and south central KS. Again, minimal shear will limit any threat of
severe weather.

By Wednesday, the initial shortwave trough will be lifting into the
northern High Plains with a second shortwave digging across the
southwest US. The dryline will once again sharpen across west-
central KS with dew points increasing into the mid-60s. While
overall large scale ascent will remain meager, the conditional
environment will be quite favorable for supercells. At this point,
the most-favorable zone extends along and west of a line from
Russell to Great Bend.

For Thursday and Friday, WAA aided convection is possible each
morning ahead of an even stronger midlevel trough poised to traverse
the Plains through the weekend. On that note, widespread rainfall is
possible Saturday into Sunday with the arrival of the previously
mentioned trough axis. There remains some discrepancy with the track
of the trough axis. The EPS ensemble mean has trended towards the
operational GFS and its southern track across KS. This solution
would bring widespread rain amounts greater than 0.5". Meanwhile,
the operational EC remains pointed at a northern track across
western NE. While this still brings rain chances to the area, rain
amounts would likely be less 0.5". Stay tuned!

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms continue to develop in the
vicinity of SLN and will do so for at least the next hour or so.
Southeasterly winds will approach 20 kt at GBD and RSL this
afternoon. Otherwise, additional storms are possible late this
afternoon across western KS but should remain west of RSL and
GBD. Another round of morning convection is possible across
central KS but confidence is too low for introduction at this
time.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMB
AVIATION...BMB