738
FXUS63 KICT 152352
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
652 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cluster of showers/storms moving into portions of central and
  south central KS

- Additional showers/storms possible this evening into tonight

- Hot temperatures continue into next week

- Active weather pattern with multiple rain chances Tuesday through
  Thursday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 158 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

As of 2PM Saturday afternoon, a midlevel shortwave trough was
advancing across western KS. In response to this shortwave, a
cluster of showers and storms has developed across
central/south central KS. At this hour, the cluster extends from
just southwest of Great Bend, southward through Greensburg.
Given the forcing for ascent aloft and minimal inhibition, this
cluster should continue east-northeastward towards the
Interstate 135 corridor. The overall severe weather potential
seems relatively low, although DCAPE values upwards of 1300 J/kg
will support localized gusty winds up to 50 mph. Otherwise,
additional showers and storms are possible this evening into the
overnight with the shortwave trough remaining in the
neighborhood and increasing low-level WAA. Meager deep layer
shear should continue to limit the potential for severe storms.

Transitioning into Sunday and next week, the midlevel ridge axis
will amplify across the eastern CONUS early next week, leaving the
Plains on the western periphery. Temperatures will remain warm with
highs in the mid 90s through Tuesday. A western US trough will pivot
into the central states Tuesday into Wednesday, shunting a cold
front into KS. This should shunt the warmest temperatures into the
MS Valley. In addition, shower and storm chances will return Tuesday
night through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 636 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Scattered thunderstorms in western Kansas continue to track to
the east. The question is their eastward progression and
potential strength by the time that they reach central Kansas.
Given the latest radar trends, it was decided to use tempo
groups with uncertainty in their arrival/longevity at any
specific terminal. Any stronger storm could produce damaging
wind gusts of 60-70 mph. Activity should diminish quickly after
sunset. Amendments may be needed to remove the current proposed
counties. South winds will remain gusty across the region until
late evening hours and pick up again mid morning. Other than
potential storms in the short term, VFR conditions should
prevail.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMB
AVIATION...VJP