543
FXUS63 KICT 090553
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1253 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe thunderstorms impacting locations mainly
  south of I-70 overnight, along with heavy rainfall and
  localized flooding.

- Near to below average temperatures today through Tuesday.

- Temperatures warming near to above average Wednesday through
  the weekend.

- Slight chances for showers/thunderstorms Tuesday, with off-
  and-on thunderstorm chances Thursday night through the
  weekend, but predictability is low this far out.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

OVERNIGHT--THIS MORNING...There are currently two areas of storms we
are monitoring. The first is oriented west-east across central
Kansas, within a zone of decent 800-650 confluence/frontogenesis.
These storms will have the greatest potential for large hail
(possibly up to half-dollar or ping-pong ball size) as it taps into
a strong reservoir of instability to the south amidst around 40 kts
of effective deep layer shear. These storms will also pose a very
heavy rainfall and localized flooding threat, as they are slow-
moving and training over the same areas, amidst above average
precipitable waters.

The second area of thunderstorms is racing east over portions of
western and central Kansas. This squall line has developed a well-
defined cold pool, and has a history of producing 60-80+ mph winds
over western Kansas. We anticipate this threat for 60-80+ mph winds
to shift east into south-central and possibly southeast Kansas
overnight, with this squall line being sustained by deep easterly
low-level flow amidst strong instability and adequate effective deep
layer shear. The hail threat should be lower with this second area
of storms since it`s more forward propagating/linear. While there
will be locally heavy rainfall, the potential for flooding will
probably be lower with this 2nd area of storms since it`ll be moving
faster.

THIS AFTERNOON--WEDNESDAY...A post-frontal airmass will support
near to below average temperatures along with dry conditions
this afternoon through Monday. For Tuesday, a meandering upper
low could bring a few showers/thunderstorms to the region,
although model trends have been backing off on these chances.
Temperatures will be warming back up closer to normal levels by
Wednesday.

THURSDAY--SUNDAY...Near to above normal temperatures are probable
late week into next weekend. Could be looking at a few chances for
thunderstorms starting Thursday night, as a frontal zone oozes south
into Mid-America, along with a few ripples in the west-northwest
flow aloft. These chances look to persist through next weekend, as
model consensus progresses an upper trough east into Mid-
America.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

The first six to eight hours of this TAF period will be rather
unsettled with all terminals expected to see thunderstorm
activity for several hours at a time. Some of this activity
could be severe with wind gusts approaching 50KT. KICT, KHUT
and KSLN are the most likely terminals to see this level of
activity. Vsby is expect to be significantly impacted with very
heavy rain with this thunderstorm activity. 1SM seemed to be
good starting point for the heavy rain but could see some Vsby
conditions as low as 1/4SM for short period of time. Again, KHUT
and KICT are the most likely terminals to see this activity.
After about 10Z, expecting the thunderstorm activity to wane
with KCNU the last to clear after 14Z this morning. After this
time, VFR conditions are expected to return.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...ELM