Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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277 FXUS63 KICT 072347 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 647 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Evening/overnight storm chances, especially across eastern KS. MCS expected to come off the High Plains Sat and affect much of the area Sat night. - Cooler for the Sun-Tue time frame. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 250 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Currently have upper ridging from West TX into NM with an upper low over central Saskatchewan with west/northwest flow aloft over the Plains. Water vapor imagery also shows some upper energy moving into the Great Basin. At the surface, lee troughing is continuing to intensify with high pressure over the Lower Mississippi Valley. Showers and a few storms tracked out of southwest KS this morning in an area of 700mb warm advection and continue to linger across east-central KS this afternoon. Additional storms are expected late this afternoon from southeast CO into southwest KS in a hot and highly mixed environment. However, the bigger show tonight will for storms to develop over central Nebraska and expand into an MCS as they track off to the southeast early this evening. This activity will be aided by strong 850-700mb moisture transport which will be focused into northeast/eastern KS. Will be plenty of elevated instability and deep layer shear for severe storms. Still thinking that our northeast fringes will have the best chance to be impacted, generally in a line along and northeast of Salina to Chanute. The main limited factor for activity further southwest will be the very warm mid level temps which should also limit eastward progression of activity that develops over southwest KS this afternoon. By 12z Sat, majority of the activity will be affecting MO and northern AR. Cold front, reinforced by outflow, will push south on Sat, and by the late afternoon hours will be situated from southern MO generally across or just south of the KS/OK border. Confidence is increasing that convection will develop over the High Plains of eastern CO/far western KS Sat afternoon in a great upslope setup. This activity will then track southeast through the evening and overnight hours, affecting at least the southern half of our forecast area. Even though complex of storms will be north of the front, still looks to be plenty instability for large hail Sat night and great directional shear between 850-500mb. In addition, PW values are expected to be around 175% of normal Sat night so high rainfall rates and pockets of flooding will also be possible. Some lingering showers and storms will be possible across far southern and southeast KS Sun morning but by the late morning hours the majority of the activity will be moving off into southern MO/eastern OK. Once convection moves off Sunday morning, the rest of the day is expected to be dry with cooler temps as the front pushes back to the south of the forecast area. Confidence in precip chances drops off considerably starting Mon and continuing through at least Tue. The GFS slowly lifts some weak upper energy out of NM and across south central KS Mon morning into the afternoon/evening hours. Meanwhile the ECMWF is slower with this upper feature and tracks it across the OK/KS border on Tue into Tue evening. So for now will not hit the pops too hard for Mon- Tue until models come into better agreement. While precip chances are in question for the start of next week, confidence is high that we will see below normal temps for the Sun-Tue time frame with highs generally in the mid and upper 70s. Cool down will be short lived with a return to above normal temps for Wed and Thu. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 639 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 A bit of a complicated and uncertain forecast will highlight the first 12 hours of the TAF period with strong to severe storms possible across central Kansas tonight. Currently, all TAF sites are VFR, but after 02Z, strong to severe storms will approach the I-70 corridor, and it appears as though KRSL and KSLN will have the best chances at seeing storms this evening into tonight (primarily before 06Z). Further south, warm mid-level temperatures should prevent intense storms, but a few showers and isolated storms will still be possible, although it will be a low chance (under 20%). After 06Z, attention will turn towards southeast Kansas for strong to severe storms activity, potentially impacting KCNU after 08Z or so. A cold front will also accompany these storms, and surface winds will shift from southerly to northerly tonight into Saturday morning. LLWS prior to, and just after, frontal passage will also be possible for a brief period of time as the front sweeps through the area. After about 12-15Z, VFR conditions should return across the entire area with light winds out of the north and northeast. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RBL AVIATION...JC