Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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464 FXUS63 KICT 070838 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 338 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Storm chances today through Saturday night, with potential severe weather and heavy rainfall. - Above average temperatures today-Saturday, with seasonably cool to below average temperatures Sunday through Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 333 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 THIS MORNING--AFTERNOON...Increasing deep warm advection may support a few hit-or-miss showers/thunderstorms from west to east this morning through the afternoon across central, south-central, and eastern Kansas. This isolated activity will be rooted around 700mb, so instability and effective shear will likely be fairly limited, which should preclude severe weather, although pea-dime size hail and brief heavy rain may accompany the strongest activity. THIS EVENING--TONIGHT...A few areas of thunderstorm chances look possible this evening-tonight. The first area is mainly west of I- 135, as late afternoon western Kansas activity develops in vicinity of a lee trough within a deeply mixed and hot airmass. Thinking this activity will tend to struggle with time and eastward extent, given very warm mid-level temperatures and associated increasing capping issues. Nevertheless, if storms can survive amidst the warm mid- level temperatures, moderate to strong instability and stout effective shear will support supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds, with the latter being supported by impressive DCAPE values. The 2nd area of thunderstorm chances this evening-tonight will be further northeast over portions of northern, central, and eastern Kansas. Activity should start out as supercells over Nebraska during the afternoon-early evening, with activity likely congealing into a rather large MCS during the evening as it races southeast along the eastern-northeast fringe of the advancing elevated mixed layer. The strong combination of buoyancy and effective shear, along with a strong low-level jet point toward the potential for a few swaths of intense straight-line damaging winds. The biggest uncertainty at this point is where this MCS will track. Given the warm mid-level temperatures, thinking the highest probability is northeast Kansas. SATURDAY AFTERNOON--EVENING...Friday night`s convection will likely spread a convectively-reinforced frontal zone south to near the KS/OK border, but possibly even further south into Oklahoma. Despite minimal upper forcing, a few thunderstorms are possible in vicinity of the frontal zone given expected strong heating. If isolated activity can develop, strong buoyancy and adequate deep layer shear will support severe storms. SATURDAY EVENING--NIGHT...As subtle shortwave energy approaches from the northwest, an uptick in thunderstorm coverage is expected during the evening Saturday across the region, persisting into the night. It`s not entirely clear exactly where this activity will be most widespread. It will all depend on where the tightest 850-700mb thermal gradient exists, which I`m suspecting will probably reside somewhere over central to southern Kansas. The instability and shear combination would favor at least a handful of strong to severe storms, and the potential for training cells could favor pockets of very heavy rainfall and localized flooding. SUNDAY--NEXT WEEK...A post-frontal airmass should support dry and cooler weather Sunday-Monday, with lower dewpoints as well. Models diverge for Tuesday, with the GFS remaining dry, and the ECMWF/GEM returning thunderstorm chances to the region. Only held onto slight chances PoPs for now until uncertainty lessens. Wednesday-Thursday looks mostly dry, with the potential for additional thunderstorm chances arriving by Thursday night--Friday. Temperatures looks to warm back up by Wednesday and persisting through late week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1218 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 VFR conditions are expected through most of this TAF period. Winds will remain light for the first 10 hours of the TAF but will pick up some after that. Tonight, there will be a chance for some shower and thunderstorm activity. This is likely to remain restricted the north with KSLN the most likely terminal to see thunderstorm activity. At this time, only have SHRA as confidence on timing is not that great. Another issue that is expected to develop after 00Z tonight will be a strong low level jet. This will create a rather strong low level turbulence situation however, placed LLWS in the TAF for KICT and KHUT due to the directional change of more than 50 degrees which meets the criteria for LLWS. This will create a bumpy ride during climb and decent for a good portion of tomorrow night. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADK AVIATION...ELM