041
FXUS63 KICT 230804
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
304 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild conditions with periodic, low rain chances look to be the
  story over the next week or so.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Water vapor satellite imagery this morning shows a sharp mid/upper
trough progressing across the central plains with a fairly strong
upper ridge over the northern Gulf of Mexico. A mid-level baroclinic
zone extends from northwest Missouri to northwest Oklahoma, and a
few showers and isolated thunderstorms are developing across
portions of south-central and southeast Kansas as a result early
this morning. This activity is expected to gradually progress
eastward throughout the day today with slow, but steady, clearing
from west to east this evening into tonight. With a post-frontal air
mass in place, afternoon temperatures will general only rise into
the upper 60s and low 70s across the forecast area.

A second, stronger upper trough located over Alberta/Northern
Montana early this morning should arrive into portions of the
central plains by late tonight or early tomorrow morning. This
features will be the catalyst for additional low (20-30%) rain
chances as well as a reinforcing shot of cool, fall-like air during
the day on Tuesday. The global ensemble and deterministic models are
starting to come to a consensus that this trough will become a large
cutoff upper low over the Ozarks region during much of this week
and into the weekend. With this placement, generally cool to mild
conditions are expected to linger. Also, perturbations rounding the
western side of this upper low may help to support low rain chances
across the area, especially across eastern Kansas during the latter
part of the week and into the weekend. However, some models have the
placement of this upper low father east into the Deep South. Should
this scenario play out, warmer and drier conditions would likely
prevail across Kansas.

Towards the latter part of the forecast period (day 6-8), global
models are hinting at the potential of this large upper low
interacting with a large tropical system as it moves inland across
the southeastern CONUS. This interaction would likely only prolong
mild and damp conditions across the area this weekend and into the
beginning of next week, assuming that the upper low is positioned
further west across the Ozarks region. There are still many details
that need to be worked out before we approach the weekend, so stay
tuned!

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

We are expecting a gradual uptick in showers/thunderstorms over
southeast Kansas later tonight into Monday morning, impacting
mainly the CNU TAF. Included a TEMPO group with TSRA from 09-13z
to cover this threat, although shower/storm chances could linger
through 15z or so. Otherwise, IFR to MVFR ceilings will persist
over portions of south-central and southeast Kansas overnight,
with ceilings gradually improving from northwest to southeast
during the day Monday as drier air moves in.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...ADK