524
FXUS63 KICT 230532
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1232 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances linger tonight/Monday mainly east of the turnpike
  with small chances areawide again on Tuesday.

- Mild days and cool nights this week!

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 223 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Some much needed rainfall in the past 24 hours with much of it
falling over the drought-stricken areas of south central Kansas.
Clouds with residual scattered light rain and drizzle in the
post-frontal airmass early this afternoon with an unseasonably
cool north wind over much of the area. The exception is far
southeast Kansas where some sunshine along the southward sagging
frontal boundary has allowed temperatures to top 80F. This is
where a diurnal uptick in showers/storms will remain possible
late this afternoon/early evening for a locally strong storm.
Otherwise, residual post frontal clouds and scattered light
rain/drizzle chances will prevail through early tonight across
the Flint Hills into parts of south central Kansas.

A residual weak upper trof will linger over the central
Plains/eastern Kansas on Monday with slight chances for a few
showers in far southeast Kansas. Meanwhile a stronger northern
stream upper trof will settle southward across the northern
Plains into the Midwest Monday night thru Tuesday. The
relatively cool air aloft under the upper trof combined with
diurnal heating may promote scattered convection across central
and eastern Kansas on Tuesday afternoon. This is somewhat
conditional with respect to rather limited surface/low level
moisture. Nonetheless, a few showers/storms could be capable of
some small hail and gusty winds. The medium range consensus
continues to support developing this into a cutoff low
meandering southward in vicinity of the Ozark region later in
the week as a Rex-type blocking pattern (ridge aloft) builds
over the Upper Midwest/northern Great Lakes. Overall,
temperatures look to average a bit below seasonal climo thru
the week.

Darmofal

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

We are expecting a gradual uptick in showers/thunderstorms over
southeast Kansas later tonight into Monday morning, impacting
mainly the CNU TAF. Included a TEMPO group with TSRA from 09-13z
to cover this threat, although shower/storm chances could linger
through 15z or so. Otherwise, IFR to MVFR ceilings will persist
over portions of south-central and southeast Kansas overnight,
with ceilings gradually improving from northwest to southeast
during the day Monday as drier air moves in.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KED
AVIATION...ADK