Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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156 FXUS63 KICT 170547 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1247 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Storms dwindling across central KS - Additional storms expected across western KS this afternoon, may move into central KS this evening and overnight - The best chances for more-widespread storms arrive Tuesday evening into Tuesday night and over the weekend && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 301 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 As of 245 PM, persistent WAA rooted near 700 mb continues to generate convection across portions of central KS. The zone of best WAA will continue to progress eastward and out of the forecast hour in the next couple of hours. Our attention then turns westward to a sharpening dryline across western KS. A cumulus field should gradually deepen through late afternoon. A subtle shortwave trough across northern NM is forecast to emerge into the Plains late this afternoon into the evening. This feature should aid in thunderstorm development along the dryline. Considerable uncertainty remains whether these storms can reach central KS given substantial surface based inhibition across central KS. As the night progresses additional elevated convection is possible across central KS. Similar to this morning, no severe weather is expected but heavy rain and small hail are possible. Transitioning into Tuesday evening, a stronger midlevel shortwave trough, currently across the southern CA coast, will eject into the central and northern High Plains. Widespread convection is expected along the dryline from NE through KS. A strengthening LLJ should allow convection to percolate eastward and into portions of central and south central KS. Again, minimal shear will limit any threat of severe weather. By Wednesday, the initial shortwave trough will be lifting into the northern High Plains with a second shortwave digging across the southwest US. The dryline will once again sharpen across west- central KS with dew points increasing into the mid-60s. While overall large scale ascent will remain meager, the conditional environment will be quite favorable for supercells. At this point, the most-favorable zone extends along and west of a line from Russell to Great Bend. For Thursday and Friday, WAA aided convection is possible each morning ahead of an even stronger midlevel trough poised to traverse the Plains through the weekend. On that note, widespread rainfall is possible Saturday into Sunday with the arrival of the previously mentioned trough axis. There remains some discrepancy with the track of the trough axis. The EPS ensemble mean has trended towards the operational GFS and its southern track across KS. This solution would bring widespread rain amounts greater than 0.5". Meanwhile, the operational EC remains pointed at a northern track across western NE. While this still brings rain chances to the area, rain amounts would likely be less 0.5". Stay tuned! && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1245 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Weakening showers and storms may continue to fester through 08-09Z over portions of central Kansas with some transient MVFR cigs possible at times under the heavier activity. Some low clouds may impact parts of south central and southeast KS during the predawn hours with some MVFR or IFR but confidence in how widespread this activity will become remains rather low. VFR is expected to prevail as we move into the mid to late morning hours with breezy southeasterly winds developing once again. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BRF AVIATION...MWM