799
FXUS63 KICT 070524
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1224 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storm chances return for Friday evening and again for Saturday
  evening into early Sunday morning.

- Below normal temps for the Sun-Tue time frame.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Northwest flow aloft is currently over the Plains with upper
ridging over the Desert Southwest. At the surface, quasi-
stationary cold front extends from northeast OK to south of the
OK/KS border and into the TX Panhandle.

Storms are expected to continue to develop late this afternoon
over northwest OK along the front where convergence is maximized
and where best instability is situated. Also looking for some
elevated showers and storms to develop late tonight into early
Fri morning across southwest KS in an area of strong 700mb warm
advection. At this time it appears anything that develops would
have to be rooted above 800mb. This activity will try and track
east Fri morning, possibly making it to our southwest counties
before dissipating late Fri morning.

Strong mid level warm advection on Fri will keep most of the
area capped throughout the day. The best chance for daytime
surface convection looks to be over western KS, likely west of
DDC. This activity will attempt to track east through the late
afternoon hours but confidence on how far east it will make it
is low, mainly based on the amount of warm mid level air. Feel
confident the more widespread convection will be Fri evening as
low level jet ramps-up and focuses into north central and
northeast KS. Also feel that any storms that develop over
west/central Nebraska would expand in coverage Fri evening as
they dive off to the southeast due to low level jet processes.
Any MCS that forms will rapidly track off to the southeast
through the overnight hours. So still thinking that northeast
portions of our forecast area would be the most likely impacted
Fri evening/night with hail and especially damaging winds the
main threats.

Fri night MCS will push the front back south for Sat and right
now it looks to setup just south of the OK/KS border by the
afternoon hours. Storms will likely develop along it by late Sat
afternoon but current thinking is that we may see an increase in
coverage north of the front Sat evening where 850mb convergence
will be maximized. Just like on Fri night, anything that
develops will quickly move off to the east/southeast with only
far southern and southeast KS being affected by Sun morning.

For Sun night into Mon night, there is some agreement between
the GFS and ECMWF in an upper low tracking out of southern
Saskatchewan and into the northern Plains. While confidence is
fairly low with regards to precip chances for the start of the
work week, confidence is high that we are looking at below
normal temps for both Mon and Tue.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

VFR conditions are expected through most of this TAF period.
Winds will remain light for the first 10 hours of the TAF but
will pick up some after that. Tonight, there will be a chance
for some shower and thunderstorm activity. This is likely to
remain restricted the north with KSLN the most likely terminal
to see thunderstorm activity. At this time, only have SHRA as
confidence on timing is not that great. Another issue that is
expected to develop after 00Z tonight will be a strong low level
jet. This will create a rather strong low level turbulence
situation however, placed LLWS in the TAF for KICT and KHUT due
to the directional change of more than 50 degrees which meets
the criteria for LLWS. This will create a bumpy ride during
climb and decent for a good portion of tomorrow night.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...ELM