Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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711 FXUS63 KICT 061956 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 256 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Storm chances return for Friday evening and again for Saturday evening into early Sunday morning. - Below normal temps for the Sun-Tue time frame. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 256 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Northwest flow aloft is currently over the Plains with upper ridging over the Desert Southwest. At the surface, quasi- stationary cold front extends from northeast OK to south of the OK/KS border and into the TX Panhandle. Storms are expected to continue to develop late this afternoon over northwest OK along the front where convergence is maximized and where best instability is situated. Also looking for some elevated showers and storms to develop late tonight into early Fri morning across southwest KS in an area of strong 700mb warm advection. At this time it appears anything that develops would have to be rooted above 800mb. This activity will try and track east Fri morning, possibly making it to our southwest counties before dissipating late Fri morning. Strong mid level warm advection on Fri will keep most of the area capped throughout the day. The best chance for daytime surface convection looks to be over western KS, likely west of DDC. This activity will attempt to track east through the late afternoon hours but confidence on how far east it will make it is low, mainly based on the amount of warm mid level air. Feel confident the more widespread convection will be Fri evening as low level jet ramps-up and focuses into north central and northeast KS. Also feel that any storms that develop over west/central Nebraska would expand in coverage Fri evening as they dive off to the southeast due to low level jet processes. Any MCS that forms will rapidly track off to the southeast through the overnight hours. So still thinking that northeast portions of our forecast area would be the most likely impacted Fri evening/night with hail and especially damaging winds the main threats. Fri night MCS will push the front back south for Sat and right now it looks to setup just south of the OK/KS border by the afternoon hours. Storms will likely develop along it by late Sat afternoon but current thinking is that we may see an increase in coverage north of the front Sat evening where 850mb convergence will be maximized. Just like on Fri night, anything that develops will quickly move off to the east/southeast with only far southern and southeast KS being affected by Sun morning. For Sun night into Mon night, there is some agreement between the GFS and ECMWF in an upper low tracking out of southern Saskatchewan and into the northern Plains. While confidence is fairly low with regards to precip chances for the start of the work week, confidence is high that we are looking at below normal temps for both Mon and Tue. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1227 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 VFR conditions are expected for all terminals throughout the period. E/NE winds will prevail at all sites with the stronger winds and gusts at KHUT and KICT falling off in the later afternoon hours. Winds are anticipated to switch to the south tonight and become stronger after sunrise. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RBL AVIATION...JK