035
FXUS63 KICT 251733
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1233 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Significant severe weather episode possible early this
  evening through the overnight hours.

- Dry and mild conditions expected for Memorial Day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Currently have an upper low lifting into Southern Manitoba with
additional upper energy about to move into the Great Basin. At
the surface, cold front extends from eastern MO into southeast
OK with a surface high situated over northwest MO.

Very complex severe weather setup expected today and this
evening with a lot of moving parts. As a series of upper
impulses approaches the Rockies, lee troughing will strengthen
over eastern CO. This will also allow return flow to rapidly
increase across the Plains which will result in rich low level
moisture lifting north. The big question for today/tonight will
be how far north the quality moisture can make it, as most of
KS currently has dewpoints in the 40s. Model trends have been to
keep the better moisture further south. Dryline really never has
a chance to become very defined across KS but is less diffuse
further south across western OK into TX. Confidence remains
fairly low on how much convection will develop along the dryline
across KS with somewhat higher confidence further south across
Western OK. If a storm is able to develop on the diffuse dryline
over west/central KS, it would be in an environment with large
temp/dew spreads which would initially limit tor potential until
the storm moves into an area of richer low level moisture. Any
surfaced based storm that is able to make it into southern KS
would have a great environment for extremely large hail and
tornadoes given very impressive deep layer shear. In addition,
low level jet will rapidly increase after 00z which would also
elevate low level SRH and associated tor potential.

Starting to wonder if the more likely scenario to get widespread
convection across our area maybe after 02z well east of the
dryline as 850-700mb moisture transport quickly ramps-up which
also coincides when the shortwave moves out across the region.
In this setup there is a chance storms would not be surfaced
based which would yield very large hail and damaging winds the
main threats, with east and northeast portions of the forecast
area having the better chances to see severe storms. Storms will
quickly track east and will be out of KS by Sun morning with
some lingering showers across northeast KS as the last of the
upper impulses finally lifts out of the area.

Good conditions are looking to setup for Memorial Day with good
model agreement in a fast moving upper impulse moving out of the
Northern Plains and into the Mid Mississippi Valley. At the
surface, weak high pressure will settle over the area Mon
providing slightly above normal temps and plenty of sunshine.
Medium range models remain consistent in digging another piece
of energy out of South Central Canada and into the Upper
Mississippi Valley by Tue morning which will reinforce a
surface high across the Northern and Central Plains. However,
along the western periphery of the high, rich moisture will
start to work back around to the north, increasing storm chances
across the High Plains. Some of these shower and storm chances
will work their way into our forecast area for Tue night through
Wed night. However, it does not appear we are looking at any
kind of organized severe weather episode as the better upper
flow remains to the north.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

VFR conditions are expected for the first six or so hours of the TAF
period. From 23Z to 04Z tonight, thunderstorm chances ramp up
significantly. Confidence on location and timing is rather low
(~30%) so left the thunderstorm activity out of the TAF for this
cycle until thunderstorms actually "show themselves". Given
this uncertainty, if thunderstorms do occur, there is a good
chance for hail (>1") and winds in excess of 60Kts. The greatest
chance for this activity will be in South Central Kansas,
affecting KHUT and KICT and to a lesser extent, KGBD and KSLN.
The risk of thunderstorm activity will continue through 08Z. By
this time, the thunderstorm activity will be in the KCNU area
and will slowly push out of the region.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...ELM