237
FXUS63 KICT 272030
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
330 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorm chances this evening and overnight, and again
  Friday evening and overnight. Thunderstorm chances continue
  this weekend across mainly southern Kansas, and areawide from
  late Tuesday through next week. Periodic bouts of strong to
  severe storms are possible, along with locally heavy rain.

- Oppressive summer heat Friday, and then again Monday and
  Tuesday of next week. A heat advisory has been hoisted
  areawide for Friday, and may be needed once again Monday-
  Tuesday of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

THIS EVENING--TONIGHT...In the near-term, we`re focusing on
thunderstorm potential this evening and tonight across central,
south-central, and southeast Kansas. Scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop in vicinity of a lee trough this afternoon
across the High Plains, and progress east-southeast this evening-
overnight, aided by a strengthening low-level jet and a subtle mid-
level disturbance. Thinking the best chance for a few severe storms
will be over central and north-central Kansas and points west, where
a favorable combination of instability, steeper lapse rates, and
deep layer shear will reside. Thinking the best potential for large
hail (greater than quarter size) will be over the western half of
Kansas this evening. As activity grows upscale and encounters less
instability with time further east this evening (generally the
eastern half of Kansas), the threat should transition to 50-65 mph
winds, small hail, and locally heavy rain...the latter being driven
by above average precipitable waters.

FRIDAY--FRIDAY NIGHT...A smattering of morning showers/thunderstorms
are possible Friday morning over eastern Kansas, within a zone of
deep warm advection and moisture transport. Severe weather appears
unlikely with this activity. Otherwise, attention then turns to
thunderstorm chances Friday late afternoon and night, as a slow-
moving frontal zone approaches from the northwest, with the southern
fringe of a northern CONUS upper trough grazing the region. The
combination of strong instability, steep lapse rates, and seasonable
deep layer shear should support a few severe thunderstorms, capable
of large hail and damaging winds, along with locally very heavy
rainfall given the high precipitable waters. By late evening and
overnight, a 2nd complex of storms could roll east-southeast out of
the High Plains into central KS, posing a 50-65 mph wind risk and
locally heavy rain.

The other main story for Friday is the heat, as atmospheric
thickness builds in from the southwest and southerly flow increases.
Thinking widespread 90s-100s are likely. When coupled with dewpoints
in the 60s-70s, afternoon through early evening heat indices will
top 105 degrees for many areas, and even approaching 110 degrees
over portions of south-central and southeast Kansas. A heat advisory
has been hoisted for all of central, south-central, and southeast
Kansas.

SATURDAY--SUNDAY...A somewhat cooler post-frontal airmass is
expected over the weekend. Periodic thunderstorm chances will exist
through the weekend as well, especially over the southern half of
Kansas and Oklahoma, in vicinity of a stalled frontal zone. A few
bouts of strong to severe storms are possible, along with locally
heavy rain, especially from near the KS/OK border on south.

MONDAY--THURSDAY...The heat and humidity build back north across the
region for Monday and Tuesday, with heat headlines once again
possible, as afternoon through early evening heat indices climb into
the 100-108 degree range. Additionally, model consensus progresses a
front south into the region by late Tuesday, and stalling it across
the region through late week. This will support periodic
thunderstorm chances across the region late Tuesday through the end
of the week. A seasonable combination of instability and deep layer
shear should support strong to severe storm chances, along with
locally heavy rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

- Timing and intensity of thunderstorm activity from 04Z to 12Z

VFR conditions are expected for the eight to ten hours of the
this TAF period. After 00Z this evening, thunderstorms will
develop to the west of the region and move into the region by
04Z. There is a concern with the timing and intensity of this
activity. At this time, only confident enough to put TEMPO
groups in KRSL and KGBD for a short period of time. VSBY
restriction will primarily be due to very heavy rain rather than
wind whipped rain. KSLN, KHUT, KICT and KCNU may not see
thunder at all so but the chances are too high to ignore. As
such, used PROB30s in the TAF at this time. By 14Z tomorrow,
the thunderstorm activity is expected to depart the region and
VFR conditions will return for the remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Friday for KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...ELM