880
FXUS63 KICT 010524
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1224 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another round of showers/thunderstorms tonight into early
  Monday, mainly over the northern half of Kansas.

- Triple digit heat indices return for Monday and Tuesday.

- Active weather pattern continues from late Tuesday through
  early Friday, including the chance for strong to severe storms
  and locally heavy rainfall.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

TONIGHT-MONDAY MORNING...Increasing warm advection and moisture
transport in the 850-650 mb layer in response to subtle mid-level
energy approaching across the Central High Plains should allow for
increasing thunderstorm chances after about midnight. Most guidance
supports the highest chances over generally the northern half of
Kansas, although thinking lift is sufficient for at least isolated
activity as far south as southern KS or northern OK.
Instability/shear combination isn`t overly impressive, so thinking
hail threat should remain mostly below severe levels. However,
continued above average precipitable waters near 2 inches will
support locally intense rainfall rates. Activity should exit east
into northeast Kansas Monday morning.

MONDAY AFTERNOON--THURSDAY NIGHT...The heat and humidity build back
north across the region for Monday and Tuesday, with afternoon
through early evening heat indices climbing into the 100-108 degree
range. Will hoist a heat advisory for Monday, and suspect we`ll
eventually need one for Tuesday as well. Additionally, model
consensus progresses a front south into the region by late Tuesday,
and stalls it across the region through late week. This, along with
a few seasonably strong/deep upper troughs, will support periodic
thunderstorm chances across the region late Tuesday through Thursday
night or early Friday. A seasonable combination of instability and
deep layer shear should support strong to severe storm chances,
along with locally heavy rainfall.

FRIDAY--NEXT WEEKEND...Deterministic and ensemble consensus supports
somewhat cooler and mostly dry weather by next Friday-Saturday, with
lower dewpoints and seasonably cool to below average temperatures,
as upper troughing deepens over the central and eastern CONUS. By
Saturday night--Sunday, model consensus supports a return to
thunderstorm chances, as shortwave energy traverses the central and
northern CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Widely scattered showers have developed near SLN and should
persist for the next couple of hours. VFR conditions will
prevail in these showers. Additional showers and storms are
possible after 09-10Z, mainly at RSL and SLN. In addition, MVFR
CIGS should arrive and continue through mid-morning. Stratus
will scatter by mid-morning as southeasterly winds increase to
15-25 kt with even stronger wind speeds by mid-afternoon. The
strongest winds will remain across central KS at GBD and RSL.
Marginal LLWS conditions are possible at HUT, SLN, RSL, and GBD
towards the end of the period but confidence is too low for
mention at this point.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
KSZ032-033-047>052-067>069-082-083-091>093-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...BRB