Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
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947 FXUS62 KILM 141353 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 953 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A tropical disturbance located a few hundred miles east of Cape Fear will move farther offshore today. A cold front will push through the Carolinas Saturday, followed by high pressure building in from the north much of next week. Seasonably warm temperatures are expected. && .UPDATE... 12z soundings from MHX and CHS matched almost perfectly with the 06z GFS forecast thermal profiles between 1000-850 mb, lending high confidence to temperature forecasts today: upper 80s at the beaches to 92-94 inland. Dry weather is expected, although we`ll be monitoring enhanced seabreeze convergence in the Cape Fear area this afternoon that might convince some towering cumulus to develop despite dry mid level conditions. North winds gusting to almost 20 knots across the outer portions of the coastal waters are due to the circulation around tropical disturbance 90L. These winds should diminish this afternoon as the system moves farther away from the area. Changes with this forecast were all minor. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Quiet conditions will continue through early Saturday morning as a weak pressure pattern has settled across the area. Highs today will be in the lower 90s with an assist from the downslope mid level flow. A weak front will move across late tonight basically unnoticed outside of a subtle wind shift. Lows Saturday morning should drop into the lower 70s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Highlights: *No significant weather expected Confidence: *Moderate to High Details: A weak cold front will move through the area Saturday and Saturday night with not much of an air mass change as moisture levels likely won`t lower too much. Only low chances of showers/storms into Saturday evening however due to limited instability/forcing, mainly east of I-95 where moisture convergence will be greatest. Can`t completely rule out a stronger storm given the elevated DCAPE expected but the dry air aloft should also limit overall storm coverage. Slightly cooler and drier air will then eventually move in to round out the weekend. Temps should be a good bit above normal Saturday due to frontal compression/ridging/lack of strong onshore winds, although not quite as high as the 100+ degrees the low-level thicknesses suggest. Dewpoints are a bit tricky as usual but we think the hot temps and moderate humidity should yield heat indices peaking near 100 degrees for most locales, especially in SC and in areas away from the coast. However, this is still several degrees shy of our Heat Advisory criteria (105 degrees). Expect a bit of a cooldown Sunday but temps are still forecast to be a bit higher than normal, around 90 inland. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Highlights: *No significant weather expected Confidence: *Moderate to High Details: A bit lower humidity is expected early next week as high pressure prevails from the north with a slight moistening trend into mid week. A coastal trough will likely develop near the coast mid week and an upper trough should move in from the east helping spark a few more showers/storms, especially on Thursday. Temps should generally stay near normal through the period. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Very quiet with VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. Extended Outlook...Generally VFR each day. && .MARINE... Through Tonight: East to northeast winds around 15 knots appear to be on the decline this morning via the past few observations although they have seemingly held on a bit higher than anticipated. A similar story with seas as they drifted to near seven feet at one point at 41013. Should continue to see a decrease with winds essentially becoming light and variable this afternoon probably more sea breeze enhanced with more of a synoptic southerly component into Saturday AM. Significant seas drop to the lower end of a 2-4 foot range during the same time frame. Saturday through Tuesday...A weak cold front will move south through the local waters Saturday and be followed by high pressure from the north and northeast through early next week. Although winds/seas will be elevated at times we do not anticipate conditions reaching Small Craft Advisory levels. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Other - Rip Currents: A moderate risk of rip currents is expected for all beaches today, mainly due to the south- southeast 7-second swell. Lingering swells and onshore winds should keep a moderate risk going for mainly the east- facing beaches into early next week. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...TRA NEAR TERM...SHK SHORT TERM...RJB LONG TERM...RJB AVIATION...SHK MARINE...RJB/SHK TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ABW