Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
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320 FXUS62 KILM 211729 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 129 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry forecast in store for the weekend, with high pressure dominating. Temperatures linger near or just above seasonal norms through early next week. Next appreciable rain chances look to return by the middle of next week with the next frontal system. && .UPDATE... No changes to the forecast with the mid morning update. The morning sounding from MHX shows a very dry profile as precipitable waters have fallen below one inch...certainly not supportive of isolated showers and hard pressed for any convective cloud cover. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Will be under the influence of ridging aloft, with the ridge axis aloft sliding eastward and reaching the Great Lakes to the Fl Panhandle by daybreak Sun. At the sfc, weak high pressure to extend down the east coast this period. After patchy morning fog, looking at generally sunny to Mostly sunny day with enough low level moisture and the days heating to ignite FEW/SCT Cu across the area. Later tonight, a mid-level impulse having rode over the upper ridge axis, will dive across the NE and Mid- Atlantic States. Associated moisture in the form of clouds could reach the northern fringes of the ILM CWA tonight. POPS should remain north of the FA. Solid mid 80s for max temps today followed by mid to upper 60s for lows tonight. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Ridging over Mexico and the Texas Gulf coast looks to flatten out a bit this period, but still extends eastward into the Carolinas. Meanwhile, surface high pressure sticks around, allowing for a mostly dry forecast this period. Only possible exception is Sunday afternoon and evening, as the Carolinas are caught in between two shortwaves. One pushes due eastward through the Ohio River Valley, while another in the DelMarVa region pushes to the south and east offshore. There could be just enough forcing and moisture convergence to squeeze out a shower or two in southeast NC, particularly north of Cape Fear. Even so, this activity doesn`t look like much, and a dry regime should ultimately be the trend. Another story to this forecast is some elevated heat, which has started to stand out a bit within the last couple of forecast cycles. Subsidence doesn`t look particularly strong, but the westerly flow underneath 700 mb in the ridging pattern is boosting highs in the upper 80s in the Pee Dee and Grand Strand regions for Sunday. Even 90 degrees is not out of the question, which would be just frighteningly ironic for the Autumnal Equinox. Some extra cloud cover keeps highs in the mid 80s in southeast NC. Highs Monday look about 2 degrees cooler. Lows each night in the mid-to-upper 60s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Tuesday still looks dry, though dewpoints soar into the 70s (disgusting). From there, long term forecast still looks messy, perhaps even messier than it did 24 hours ago. Upper air patterns show an upper low coming out of either the Plains or the Great Lakes region (like that narrows it down...) and pushing a cold front through the area by Thursday and Friday. Essentially, expect rain chances to pick up ahead of this system. Highs in the mid 80s remain through Thursday, and may actually try to hit the upper 80s again on Wednesday. Lows in the mid 60s. Meanwhile, confidence is increasing on some tropical mischief forming in the northwestern Caribbean Sea some time next week. Even so, forecast guidance is still mucky, and there`s not much to say at this point. NHC calls for a 60% chance of formation within the next week. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conditions expected through the period. There was a smattering of fog this morning but the column continues to dry out as displayed by the lack of low level convective clouds over most of the area. A weak shortwave may spark a few showers late tonight but coverage will be limited and fleeting in nature. Extended Outlook...Dry through at least Tuesday with VFR conditions, but daily early morning MVFR/IFR from fog/stratus remains possible. Cold front approaches late Wed. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...Weak sfc ridging down the U.S. East Coast to prevail this period. Sfc pg to remain somewhat relaxed. Winds generally N-NE 10 to occasionally 15 kt today, veering easterly late today thru tonight. The low churning and burning well offshore from the Mid-Atlantic States, will send a 9+ second period ENE swell and when combined with locally produced wind waves, looking at 2 to 4 ft seas thru the period, except 1 to 3 south of Cape Fear NC. Sunday through Wednesday...Variable winds Sunday then become onshore (generally easterly or southeasterly) Monday through Wednesday, clocking in at 5-10 kts. Seas 2-3 ft. Outside of wind waves, a noticeable easterly swell comes in at 10-11 seconds. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Coastal flooding remains a threat through the weekend into early next week with high astronomical tides and a modest northeast flow. The beaches seem secure for minor coastal flooding requiring an advisory. However, criteria along the Lower Cape Fear River from Wilmington south may reach Moderate Coastal flood thresholds requiring a Coastal Flood Warning. Upstream waters working their way down the Cape Fear River will also influence the flooding on both sides of the Cape Fear River including Brunswick County. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Coastal Flood Warning until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ107- 109. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...IGB UPDATE...15 NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...IGB LONG TERM...IGB AVIATION...SHK MARINE...DCH/IGB TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...