086
FXUS62 KILM 220902
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
502 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A tropical disturbance will track further inland near the
northern Florida and southern Georgia coasts today. A warming
and more humid trend will commence today with an extended
period of heat, humidity, and diurnal convection through the
middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Early morning fog to dissipate and low stratus to cu fields
should occur by 8 or 9 am given the time of year and sun angle.
Overall, the ILM CWA will be between ridges aloft this period,
Bermuda high and the upper high that was situated over the
Carolinas for much of the week will slide SW to the Gulf Coast
States. This leaves general troffinbess aloft with light flow
across the region to start the day. Still some influence from
the tropical disturbance that went onshore, as its inverted sfc
trof to slowly dissipate today. This will be a source of forcing
as well as mainland pushing resultant wind boundary, aka sea
breeze later today and this evening. The convective activity
will continue diurnal in nature, progressing inland, away from
the coast this aftn/evening. POPs generally in the low chance
category generally ceasing after sunset. Tonight, sfc Bermuda
high pressure will extend its ridging across the area with S-SSW
winds staying active thru much of the night, especially east of
I-95 corridor. This should keep fog development at a
minimum. Some indications of a low level SSW-SW jet to occur
within the boundary layer also aiding to keep fog development
to a minimum. Todays highs mid 80s at the coast, to 90-95 away
from the immediate coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Above normal temperatures continue on Sunday ahead of a surface
trough that should bring light southerly winds. The onshore
flow had been leading to a scattering of showers and will
continue to do so with a bit more inland progression as a weak
shortwave provides some additional lift. Surface trough remains
to our west on Monday allowing for even more heat to advect into
the region. There may be some more widespread heat-relieving
showers as mid level flow tips from SW to WNW and becomes more
vort- laden. A few places could reach minimal Heat Advisory HI
values of 105 Monday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Cold front drops in and stalls by Tuesday. The CAA associated
with the boundary will stay confined to our north but dewpoints
do drop esp inland. The drier air should limit convection to
being only isolated in coverage, possibly favoring coastal
locales but din`t want to show such specificity that far out in
time. The lower dewpoints will cap HI values below advisory
thresholds for the most part but moisture recovery appears
slated for Wednesday., likely the hottest of this stretch.
Another weak boundary drops in on Thursday, likely pushing POPs
back up to the scattered realm with approx 50 percent coverage.
The front stalls nearby on Friday minimizing any cooldown to
just a few degrees and also calling for a continuation of low
POPs.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Increasing confidence in fog development tonight due to a
combination of earlier rainfall, much more moisture advected
across the area in the lower levels, ie 70s sfc dewpoints and
winds becoming calm away from the immediate coast. Have hit the
fog pretty hard across the inland terminals, including ILM.
Between 12z and 13z, the fog should dissipate as SE-S winds
commence and the sun already 3hrs into the day, increasing
altitude. Could observe onshore movement of shra after daybreak
that may further develop into tstorms as overall flow pushes
further inland. Have included VCSH for the coastal terminals
this morning that will translate inland by this aftn. Have
included a Prob30 tstorm threat mainly for the inland terminals.
Being activity will be diurnally induced, tstorms should
dissipate around dusk. Look for convective clouds in the
evening inland. Calm winds to give way to light SE-S flow
during daylight hrs, except 10+ sustained later this morning
thru the evening across the coastal terminals.

Extended Outlook... VFR to prevail outside of the periodic
MVFR/IFR from diurnally-induced showers/storms and morning low
clouds/fog.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...General mid level troffiness off the SE U.S.
Coast will persist thru tonight. Relaxed sfc pg to start this
period with light SSE-S winds, thats tightens a bit tonight,
with speeds increasing to 10-15 kt. Seas generally 2 to 4 ft
with the E-SE 8+ second period wave dominating but slowly
decaying. The SSE-S wind wave chop will become more observable
this aftn and tonight. Winds nearly thru the atm column this
morning will run less than 10 kt. Once the days heating
commences this morning, conditions will be moderately
favorable for waterspout development across the area waters.

Sunday through Wednesday...An inland trough will keep wind out
of the S to SW Sunday and Monday. Swell energy will be rather
removed out to sea making the wind wave the dominant wave,
generally in the 5-6 second realm. A cold front dropping in late
Monday night into Tuesday will lighten winds and lead to
directional  that may be hard to time, but the southerly winds
return by Wednesday. No appreciable swells expected later in the
period.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Other - Rip Currents: A high risk of rip currents is in effect
today for Pender and New Hanover County Beaches. Moderate rip
current risk across Horry and Georgetown County Beaches. Brunswick
County Beaches should see weak rip current activity today. The
elevated rip current activity will be aided by the 8+ second
period onshore waves and the enhanced tidal range due to the
current full moon. Wind speeds will not be as strong like the
past several days, and as a result could see weak to possibly
moderate longshore currents from the southerly winds this
afternoon and evening.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NCZ106-108.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...DCH/MBB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DCH