509
FXUS62 KILM 210626
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
226 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Onshore movement of showers and possibly a thunderstorm will
occur late tonight into Friday as a result of a tropical wave
tracking across the SW Atlantic, moving onshore well south of
the local forecast area. A warming trend will begin Saturday,
with an extended period of heat, humidity, and diurnal
convection through the middle of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Forecast updated to end the SCA north of Murrells Inlet as seas
are falling below 6 ft. Will maintain the headline south of
there though, still through 6am Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Surface high pressure centered to the northeast over the western
Atlantic will continue to slowly shift eastward through Friday as a
tropical disturbance passes westward well to the south. Moisture
will be on the increase tonight and we could see some showers
reaching the coast late, especially in SC. Shower chances, and
possibly even some rumbles of thunder, will increase a bit Friday as
the surface trough extending north from the low to the south pushes
through the area. Could see a little fog develop inland late tonight
but the increasing low-level flow should prevent
significant/widespread visibility restrictions. Lows tonight should
be in the mid to upper 60s away from the warmer coastal areas,
although possibly a bit colder in the normally colder areas like
Holly Shelter. Highs Friday should range from the mid to upper 80s
east to lower 90s west, about normal for this time of year near the
coast and a bit warmer than normal inland.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Low level trough or tropical wave will track inland across the
Southeast while weakening and dissipating as it hits the upper
level ridge and drier air in place across the Carolinas into Fri
night. As the trough moves inland it will kick winds around
from E-NE to SE to S with Bermuda High becoming dominant feature
into the weekend and beyond. Overall, will see an increase in
humidity with richer dewpoint air in place in southerly return
flow on Saturday. With that being said, the mid to upper levels
remain under the influence of ridge over the Southeast, but it
weakens a bit on Sat with limited shower activity, with best
chance over the Pee Dee or south of our local area. H5 Heights
will begin a downward trend and upper level ridge weakens a
bit, but 850 temps will be on the rise with warmer and moister
southerly return flow producing warmer overnight temps in the
70s Fri night and Sat night and temps reaching into the 90s away
from the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The mid to upper ridge becomes suppressed farther south and west over
the Deep south as a low pressure system tracks across the Great
Lakes into Sunday. Although this front does not make it into the
Carolinas until Mon, moisture will increase in deeper southerly
flow. Soundings show moisture up through 12k ft or so by Sun
morning with pcp water values up near 2 inches along the coast.
The ridge will begin to weaken and this combined with the
increasing moisture and more defined Piedmont trough, as well as
local effects of sea breeze and any boundaries, to produce
better chance of convection Sun, but more so on Mon as the mid
to upper trough pushes cold front eastward with better upper
dynamics in place. The weakening front will approach overnight
Mon into Tues shifting winds to the W-NW briefly inland mainly
with some drier air through the column making it into the I-95
corridor, but the front will dissipate and by afternoon with sea
breeze and Bermuda High dominating, winds will come back around
to the south. Should see less convection though.

Heat indices should reach over 100 inland on Sun and by Mon may
reach Heat Advisory thresholds on Mon, but will have to see how
much cloud cover or convection will get in the way. Either way,
above normal temps will arrive over the weekend and continue
through at least Wed before a more substantial front crosses the
area We night into Thurs.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR to start at 06Z and should take it thru sunrise. There-
after, MVFR ceilings are possible at the coastal terminals as
low level clouds move onshore. Could be isolated -shra
accompanying them, however as the days insolation increases, so
will the avbl instability. The convective lid of the past
several days will not be as prevalent, resulting in potential
tstorm activity and therefore identified it with PROB30 groups
later this morning thru the aftn, mainly at the coastal
terminals. With the potential for activity reaching FLO later in
the day. After sunset, pcpn activity should dissipate, however
activity will be lurking off the coast. May need to include VCSH
for the coastal terminals for this evening and overnight.
Looking at Easterly flow that will veer to the SE given the
sfc pressure pattern as the tropical wave or low moves onshore
across FL/GA today.

Extended Outlook...VFR to prevail outside of the
periodic MVFR/IFR from diurnally-induced showers/storms.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Friday...The pressure gradient will remain slightly
enhanced across the area between high pressure to the north and
low pressure to the south. Winds will gust to near 20 kt into
early Friday before improving while seas peak up to 6 ft,
especially off the Georgetown Co coast.

Friday night through Tuesday...A surface trough will continue
its inland trek turning winds from a more easterly direction to
a more S-SW direction by Sat as Bermuda High becomes dominant
into the weekend. This will begin a prolonged period of S-SW
winds into early next week. The onshore push and higher seas
will diminish as winds shift to a more southerly direction Fri
night into the weekend. Seas will be close to the 3 to 4 ft
range with diminishing E-SE swell through the weekend. Expect an
increase in winds on Mon as front pushes into the Carolinas
producing a tighter gradient. Winds up to 15 to 20 kts on Mon
will diminish as this will be short lived as front dissipates
over inland Carolinas and Bermuda High dominates again on Tues.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Other - Rip Currents: ESE swell and upcoming full moon will
maintain an elevated rip current risk for east and southeast
facing beaches in our area through (at least) Friday. A high
risk of rip currents is in effect Friday for Pender, New
Hanover, Horry, and Georgetown County beaches, as well as Ocean
Isle Beach west in Brunswick.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for NCZ106-108.
SC...High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for SCZ054-056.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     AMZ256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...MAS
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...RJB/RGZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...VAO