412
FXUS62 KILM 231959
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
359 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Typical summertime conditions can be expected this week with
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each day along
with warm and muggy temperatures.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Isolated activity ongoing has finally started showing some lightning
and thunder. Showers and storms are slow-moving and should stay non-
severe, migrating more towards the coast this evening. Isolated
activity could remain at the coast overnight as well as some low
clouds. Warmed lows near the coast, but unsure how thick the cloud
deck will be and how long it will linger overnight. Mid 70s inland
with upper 70s near the coast. Tomorrow could see the threat for
severe weather as a cold front approaches the area. The front should
be pushing into the area around the morning along with a line of
showers and storms which will make the high temp forecast difficult
with increasing cloudiness. Went a bit warmer with the SW flow ahead
of the line, highs in the mid 90s. Heat indices could near advisory
thresholds in some areas but with the incoming precip around the
same time opted to not put one out at this time. Instability is near
2-2.5k but still not looking like much deep layer shear for storm
organization. Seeing a bit of an inverted V in the soundings and
with mixing to around 800mb isolated damaging winds and some hail
can`t be ruled out in stronger storms. The line should shift towards
the coast by the end of the period.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Pops will linger into Monday evening via a cold front
and mid level trough. The boundary will get bogged down or dissipate
through Wednesday with pops being more confined to southern zones
Tuesday. By Wednesday a more seasonal sea breeze boundary will be
the main catalyst for showers and thunderstorms. While there is
almost no cooling in the wake of the front some slightly lower
dewpoints will decrease heat concerns Tuesday with moisture recovery
Wednesday bringing the possibility of headlines back into play.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Decent pops remain in the forecast for Thursday and
Friday although the coverage and or intensity have taken a hit in
recent medium range model cycles. Although the mid level trough and
front are decent enough it appears the trough is advecting
relatively dry and stable air from the massive ridge out west that
extends into the Gulf of Mexico. Next weekend seems to offer more of
a sea breeze/isolated pulse convection set up. Temperatures will be
on the warm side of climatology but probably just short of any
headline criteria.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Isolated showers expected to continue through the day with
perhaps a stray rumble of thunder. What`s out there is pretty
slow- moving but haven`t seen any solid restrictions yet. Cu is
around 5kft with lower level clouds near the coastal terminals
~1.5-3 kft. These are occasionally filling in to BKN but only
briefly. Have lower clouds sticking around a bit overnight but
coverage looks to be the issue. Otherwise should be mostly dry
with predominant VFR through the latter half of the TAF period
until rain chances pick up again towards Mon aftn.

Extended Outlook... VFR to prevail outside of the periodic
MVFR/IFR from diurnally-induced showers/storms and morning low
clouds/fog.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Monday...
Small Craft conditions should be met in both gusts
and seas tonight with questionable ending time as the 6ft seas look
to take a bit longer to leave our outer waters. Current advisory is
running through Monday morning. Isolated strong storms may move over
the waters Mon PM ahead of a cold front but winds should stay SW
through the period.

Monday Night through Friday...
Residual southwest winds of 10-15 knots late Monday are
seemingly the strongest of the week as a cold front pushes across
briefly. A brief and weak offshore flow will then develop followed
by south to southeast winds ten knots or so through late week.
Significant seas will be 2-4 feet.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Other - Rip Currents: A high risk of rip currents possible for
the Brunswick County and Northern Horry County Beaches
for Mon with a gradually decreasing risk of rip currents
Tue and Wed for all county beaches.

For today, a strong south to north longshore current expected
across Pender and New Hanover County Beaches. This may need to
be expanded to other county beaches for Mon as modest SSW to SW
winds continue, possibly increasing ahead of an approaching
cold front.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT
     Monday for NCZ107.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 11 AM EDT Monday
     for AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...LEW
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...LEW
MARINE...SHK/LEW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...